Gina Carano vs Ronda Rousey Predictions & Best Prop Bets for Netflix MMA

• Ronda Rousey is a -625 moneyline favorite to beat Gina Carano Saturday on Netflix
• Carano is now 44 years old and hasn’t fought in 17 years
• Check out my Gina Carano vs Ronda Rousey predictions and best prop bets for Netflix MMA

History will be made on Saturday night as the first ever MVP MMA card will take place on Netflix. The event is headlined by the Gina Carano vs Ronda Rousey fight, which is a matchup that has literally been decades in the making.

Saturday’s card will feature 11 fights in total, and will get stream live on Netflix starting at 9 pm ET from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles. The event will also feature the return to the Octagon for Nate Diaz, Mike Perry and Francis Ngannou, but make no mistake, the fight everyone wants to see is the Carano vs Rousey bout.

Keep reading for my favorite Carano vs Rousey predictions, plus the best prop bets for Netflix MMA.

Gina Carano vs Ronda Rousey Predictions

• Under 1.5 Rounds (-215 at Bet365)

My favorite wager in the traditional MMA markets for the Main Event is under 1.5 rounds. Rousey opened as roughly a -500 moneyline favorite, but has ballooned all the way up to -625 as of Friday afternoon. I don’t think there’s any question that Rousey is going to win this fight, it’s just a matter of how long it will take. She might submit Carano in the first 10 seconds, or it might take 4 minutes, but I promise you (much to Netflix’s dismay) this fight isn’t lasting longer than a round and a half.

Tale of the Tape

Although both women are returning from lengthy retirements, the nature of their time away is completely different. Carano has not fought since 2009. Seventeen years is an eternity in MMA, as the sport’s strategies and techniques have evolved exponentially.

Rousey, meanwhile, last fought in 2016 but spent several years as a full-time professional wrestler. I realize wrestling is fake, but the physical demands of pro-wrestling kept Rousey training like an athlete, maintaining her explosive power, flexibility, and comfort under the spotlight. Rousey is also five years younger than the 44-year-old Carano, a gap that is going to be way too big to overcome in this championship-style fight.

Carano’s biggest weakness is her grappling defense, a flaw that essentially ender her career. That’s a huge problem in this fight, as Rousey’s entire MMA resume was forged from her dominant judo and grappling skills. It’s only a matter of time before she takes Carano to the mat, and from there it won’t be long before Rousey secures a devastating arm bar to submit her.

Gina Carano vs Ronda Rousey Best Prop Bets

• Fight to End in 1st 60 Seconds of Round 1 (Yes +550 at DraftKings)
• Rousey to Win in Round 1 (-110 at DraftKings)

The only path for Carano to win this fight is if she floors Rousey with a strike. The moment Rousey gets her hands on her it’s over. Rousey scored a finish in every one of her UFC victories, ending nine of the bouts in Round 1, with seven of those victories coming by her per patented arm bar submission.

You could make the argument that perhaps the streaming giant has encouraged Rousey to put on a bit of a show and let this fight drag out, but I think she’s out for blood and will be looking to make a statement with an emphatic victory.