Golden Knights vs Leafs Prediction, Best Bets, Odds & Projected Lineups (Jan. 23)

• Vegas is a -120 road favorite over Toronto on Friday night
• Mitch Marner returns to Scotiabank Arena for the first time since his offseason trade
• See my Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs prediction, best bets and lineups for Friday Night Hockey

The Golden Knights (24-13-12) head to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs (24-17-9) in what’s shaping up as an emotional Friday night. Vegas enters riding a seven-win stretch in their last nine games, while Toronto has dropped four of their last five. Online sportsbooks have the Golden Knights as short road favorites per the latest NHL odds.

Puck drop is set for 7:00 pm ET from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario.

Here is my Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs prediction and best bets, along with the latest odds and projected lineups for Friday Night Hockey.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick

I’m backing over 6 goals tonight between two offenses that have been finding the net consistently. Vegas ranks fifth in the NHL averaging 3.35 goals per game, while Toronto sits 11th at 3.32 goals scored.

The last time these teams met, they combined for 11 goals in a 6-5 Vegas overtime win. That matchup saw Marner pick up two assists against his former team, and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight.

VGK vs TOR: 5-vs-5 Advanced Stats (Last 10 Games)

The advanced metrics support a high-scoring game. Vegas controls play with a 50.97% Corsi while Toronto gets caved in at 43.54%, meaning the Golden Knights should generate plenty of chances. Toronto’s 24.96 xGA over their last 10 games shows they’re bleeding quality opportunities.

Toronto’s 43.13% xGF% shows they’re getting outchanced badly, but they’ve managed a 50% actual goals for percentage thanks to a 1.020 PDO. They’re running hot on finishing, which is perfect for the over. When they do get chances, they’re burying them at an unsustainable rate.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Best Bets

My best bet tonight is the over, and the goaltending matchup is a big reason why. Anthony Stolarz is expected back in net for Toronto after missing time since November 11. Throwing a goalie into his first game in over two months against the fifth-ranked offense in the league is asking a lot, and rust could be a factor early.

The Golden Knights are also dealing with a tough spot playing on the second night of a back-to-back after falling 4-3 to Boston. Adin Hill will likely get the start, and he’s posted an .873 save percentage through five appearances this season. Neither goalie inspires confidence, which sets up perfectly for goals.

Vegas powerplay has been lethal, converting at 26.49% which ranks fourth in the NHL. They’ve scored 0.82 powerplay goals per game, and facing a Toronto penalty kill that allows 0.44 powerplay goals against could lead to special teams scoring.

The Leafs are also dealing with defensive injuries. Oliver Ekman-Larsson left Wednesday’s game with a lower-body injury and is out, while Brandon Carlo is a game-time decision. That depleted blue line makes life easier for Jack Eichel, who leads Vegas with 59 points, and Mark Stone, who’s riding a 13-game point streak.

Vegas averages 4.2 goals over their last 10 games, and Toronto’s been scoring despite getting outplayed. Auston Matthews has been heating up with 19 points in his last 13 games, and he loves playing Vegas with 11 goals in 13 career matchups. I’m taking over 6 goals at Bet365.

As a secondary play, I like Vegas moneyline at -120. The Golden Knights have won seven of their last nine games and the underlying metrics show they’re the better team. Toronto has lost four of their last five, and the injuries on defense give Vegas an edge. The back-to-back concerns me slightly, but this is a favorable matchup for the road team.

For more on Marner’s return and his best prop bets, check out our Mitch Marner props analysis for Friday night. He’s gone over 2.5 shots in five of his last seven games and should be motivated playing against his former team.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Odds

The odds I’m using for this game come from Bet365. Vegas is listed at -120 on the moneyline, which translates to a 54.5% implied probability of winning. Toronto comes back at +100, giving them a 50% implied win probability in a market with some juice built in.

The over 6 goals is priced at -120, meaning you need to risk $120 to win $100. That line suggests the book sees this as a likely high-scoring affair, and I agree with that assessment. The under sits at +100, offering even money to anyone who thinks the goalies will stand tall.

On the puck line, Vegas is getting +200 to win by two or more goals, while Toronto is heavily juiced at -245 to stay within a goal or win outright. That spread tells you the market expects a competitive game even if Vegas is favored.

Odds as of Jan. 23. Check out SBD’s Bet365 Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Projected Lineups

Vegas Golden Knights Projected Lines

Forwards:

Mitch Marner – Jack Eichel – Mark Stone
Pavel Dorofeyev – Tomas Hertl – Ivan Barbashev
Brett Howden – Nicolas Roy – Alexander Holtz
Tanner Pearson – Cole Schwindt – Keegan Kolesar

Defense:

Alex Pietrangelo – Shea Theodore
Brayden McNabb – Noah Hanifin
Nicolas Hague – Zach Whitecloud

Goalie: Adin Hill

Adin Hill is expected to start for Vegas after the team played last night in Boston. Hill has gone 2-1-2 with a 3.01 GAA and .873 save percentage this season. Akira Schmid has been the more reliable option with a 15-5-5 record and .896 save percentage.

Rasmus Andersson was acquired in a trade with Calgary but hasn’t played yet due to immigration issues. His timeline for debut remains unclear. William Karlsson remains out, while forwards Brett Howden and Brandon Saad are dealing with injuries as well.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards:

Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Marner Knies
Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Max Pacioretty
Nicholas Robertson – Max Domi – Connor Dewar
Steven Lorentz – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Defense:

Morgan Rielly – Chris Tanev
Jake McCabe – Philippe Myers
Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins

Goalie: Anthony Stolarz

Adin Hill vs Anthony Stolarz Stats

Stolarz returns tonight for Toronto after missing time since November 11. The goalie situation has been in flux with Joseph Woll posting an 11-5-4 record and .912 save percentage, while Dennis Hildeby is 5-6-4 with a .910 save percentage.

Toronto’s defense takes a hit with Oliver Ekman-Larsson dealing with a lower-body injury and listed as out. Brandon Carlo is also questionable after playing Wednesday. William Nylander remains sidelined with his groin injury, robbing the Leafs of 17 goals and 31 assists from their top line.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs How to Watch

US viewers can watch the game on SCRIPPS and ESPN+, while Canadian fans can tune in on Sportsnet or TVA Sports.