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- UC Irvine is a 2.5-point favorite over Hawaii in a Big West showdown on Thursday
- The Rainbow Warriors edged the Anteaters 67-66 in Honolulu earlier this month
- See my Hawaii vs UC Irvine predictions and best bets for the Jan. 29 matchup, below
Thursday night’s Big West showdown features two teams battling for first place as Hawai’i (15-4, 7-2 Big West) travels to face UC Irvine (14-7, 7-2 Big West) at the Bren Events Center.
Online sportsbooks have installed the Anteaters as 2.5-point home favorites in the college basketball odds. Hawaii enters as a slight moneyline underdog at +110 despite winning the first meeting 67-66 back on Jan. 10.
The action tips off at 11 pm ET with ESPNU providing the broadcast coverage. This marks the final regular-season meeting between these programs as conference rivals, with UH heading to the Mountain West next season.
Here are my Hawaii vs UC Irvine predictions and best bets.
Hawaii vs UC Irvine Picks and Predictions
ATS Pick: UC Irvine -2.5 (-102 at BetMGM)
Betslip #1769725659520-481c-259
I’m laying the points with the Anteaters in this pivotal conference clash. Yes, Hawaii won the first meeting by a single point in Honolulu, but the venue shift matters significantly here. The Rainbow Warriors have lost their last six visits to the Bren Events Center, with their last win there coming back in 2018.
Hawaii’s road struggles extend beyond this rivalry. They’re 2-3 away from the island this season and just 2-10 straight up in their last 12 road games overall. Meanwhile, UC Irvine owns a 6-3 record at home and is 21-9 all-time against the ‘Bows.
There’s also the matter of schedule strength. Hawaii’s non-conference schedule ranks 362nd-364th nationally per Torvik and KenPom. Those gaudy defensive numbers were built against softer competition.
The Anteaters bring legitimate rim protection to this contest. Kyle Evans leads the nation in shot-blocking with 3.2 blocks per game and had five rejections in the first meeting. UC Irvine ranks as the top two-point defense in the country during Big West play, which should neutralize Hawaii’s preferred interior attack.
An injury to leading assist man Aaron Hunkin-Claytor also looms large for the Rainbow Warriors. He’s missed the last two games and is out indefinitely. Hunkin-Claytor had 12 points and six assists in the first meeting, and his absence disrupts Hawaii’s ball movement against Irvine’s aggressive perimeter defense.
Key Statistical Metrics: Hawaii vs UC Irvine
The first meeting was a defensive slugfest played to just 71 possessions. The teams combined for 20 blocked shots, and seven-footer Isaac Johnson led UH with 15 points despite playing only 13 minutes due to foul trouble. Dre Bullock struggled to just four points on 2-of-11 shooting.
The trends heavily favor the home side as well. UC Irvine is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against Hawaii. Combine that with the Anteaters’ revenge factor after losing by a single point in the first meeting, and the situational edge clearly points toward Irvine covering.
Game-Total Pick: Under 141.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Betslip #1769725714118-481c-682
Both teams rank among the best defensive units in college basketball. Hawaii leads the Big West and ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 64.9 points per game. UC Irvine leads the conference and ranks third nationally in field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 37.5% shooting.
The first matchup had the makings of an Under from the opening tip, finishing 67-66. UCI only attempted eight three-pointers compared to Hawaii’s 24, yet the Anteaters were right there at the buzzer.
Kyle Evans’ presence alters opposing offenses. Teams settle for low-efficiency mid-range jumpers rather than attacking the paint against his 3.2 blocks per game.
The under is 9-2 in Hawaii’s last 11 games and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these programs. UC Irvine’s under has cashed in 12 of their 21 games this season, while Hawaii has stayed under the total in 13 of their first 17 contests.
UC Irvine also ranks 287th in effective field goal percentage. They’re not looking to outscore anyone. This game has all the hallmarks of a methodical, physical Big West grinder that stays comfortably under this number.
Hawaii vs UC Irvine Best Bets
Best Bet: UC Irvine Moneyline (-130 at Fanatics)
Betslip #1769726041235-481c-816
The moneyline juice on UCI isn’t prohibitive at Fanatics, and this game sets up perfectly for the Anteaters to grab sole possession of first place in the conference title odds. Hawaii’s road woes are well-documented, and playing at the Bren Events Center has been a nightmare for the Rainbow Warriors historically.
UC Irvine’s offense runs through Jurian Dixon, who leads the team with 15.6 points per game while shooting 41.1% from three. Hawaii’s defense limited Dixon to just six points in 26 minutes in the first meeting, but expect him to bounce back at home.
The Anteaters already proved they could hang with Hawaii despite a poor shooting night and minimal three-point attempts. On their home floor with the revenge factor in play, I expect UC Irvine to improve their offensive execution and take this one outright.
Hawaii vs UC Irvine Odds
Odds as of Jan. 29 at BetMGM Sportsbook. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college basketball.