Hofstra vs Monmouth – Best Bets for CAA Championship (March 10)

• Hofstra is 2-0 vs. Monmouth this season
• That’s not the only reason Hofstra is favored to cover the 4.5-point spread
• Explore the key matchup metrics and public betting splits driving nearly 79% of the overall money toward the Over

Hofstra already has defeated Monmouth twice this season. If the Pride want to play in the NCAA Tournament, they’ll have to do it again when the teams meet again in the winner-take-all CAA Championship. Tip-off is set for 7 pm (CBSSN).

Neither team has a high enough RPI to feel comfortable receiving an at-large bid, but the winner tonight receives a coveted automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.

Hofstra (23-10) outlasted Towson in OT to advance to the final. Monmouth (19-14) won both of its tournament games by 10 points.

Bettors evaluating this matchup will find fascinating contrasting styles, pitting a dynamic backcourt duo of CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis and guard Preston Edmead against an opportunistic, gritty defense.

Our analysis breaks down the key trends and metrics and offers expert betting advice for the CAA Championship on March 10.

Best Hofstra vs Monmouth Best Bets

Pick 1: Hofstra -4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Hofstra boasts a dynamic, high-octane rotation that will be exceptionally difficult for Monmouth to contain for a full 40 minutes. Beyond the elite offensive production of Davis, who averages an eye-popping 24.0 points and 4.5 assists per game while shooting a blistering 50% from beyond the arc, Edmead provides a massive secondary spark by chipping in 17.5 points per contest. Situational trends heavily support backing the favorite in this spot. Hofstra has successfully won 85.7% (6-1 straight-up) of their matchups against teams ranked 101-150 in RPI this season. Conversely, Monmouth has completely failed to step up in class when facing upper-echelon competition, going a dismal 0-5 straight-up (0%) against Top 100 RPI programs. Monmouth simply lacks the perimeter shooting efficiency to match pace down the stretch, making the 4.5-point spread highly exploitable.

The Total: Over 135.5 ($0.50 per contract at Kalshi)

At prediction site Kalshi, Over 135.5 is trading at 50¢ (equivalent to a +100 odds, which makes it a better value than most sportsbooks. If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

Despite the inherent pressure of a championship environment, the betting value leans heavily toward a high-scoring affair. When Davis stretches the defense on the perimeter, it consistently opens the floor for German Plotnikov, who is also knocking down 50% of his three-point attempts while contributing 13.0 points per night. On the other side of the court, Monmouth possesses the interior efficiency to push this total higher and capitalize on extended possessions. Stefanos Spartalis (12.0 PPG) is shooting an elite 88.9% from the charity stripe, ensuring crucial points are generated when the clock is stopped.

CAA Championship Public Betting Trends and Splits

The college basketball public betting splits reveal some fascinating dynamics between casual ticket counts and the more valuable money percentages. Breaking down where the stake is actually flowing provides vital context for our predictions.

Moneyline Splits

• Hofstra: 91.64% of the tickets | 59.70% of the money
• Monmouth: 8.36% of the tickets | 40.30% of the money

While an overwhelming 91.64% of all moneyline tickets are printed with Hofstra to win outright, they only command 59.70% of the actual money. Monmouth is drawing a very respectable 40.30% of the overall stake despite minimal ticket volume. Because we always lean on the money percentage as the premier indicator of larger, more respected wagers, this discrepancy shows that larger players are showing a healthy amount of respect for the underdog. However, because the money percentage on Monmouth (40.30%) does not cross the 60% threshold against the heavily publicly backed favorite, this does not strictly qualify as a true sharp versus public divide.

Total Splits

• OVER: 78.92% of the tickets | 78.56% of the money
• UNDER: 21.08% of the tickets | 21.44% of the money

Unlike the moneyline, the market on the total is entirely unified. Nearly 79% of the tickets and 78.56% of the total stake are hammering the Over, aligning perfectly with our official prediction of Over 134.5. The larger stakes agree that the offensive efficiency of both squads will easily surpass the oddsmakers’ conservative projections. Similarly, the public’s solid 59.70% financial backing on the moneyline validates our confidence in laying the 4.5 points on the spread.

Hofstra vs Monmouth Team Stats Comparison

Hofstra is 2-0 vs. Monmouth this season. Here’s how they stack up:

Hofstra has proven it can beat good teams. The Pride are 3-3 against Top 100 RPI programs and a dominant 6-1 against the 101-150 tier. Conversely, Monmouth is 0-5 when stepping up in class against Top 100 RPI competition, building the bulk of its19 wins against the bottom tier of college basketball.

This step up in competition is exactly why laying the 4.5 points is a highly appealing angle.

Monmouth vs Hofstra Odds

• Moneyline: Hofstra -210 / Monmouth +173
• Spread: Hofstra -4.5 (-112) / Monmouth +4.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 134.5 (-110) / Under 134.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 10, 2026, at 8:13 AM EST from consensus odds.

The betting market heavily favors Hofstra, setting them as a sturdy -210 moneyline favorite and laying 4.5 points on the spread. This positioning reflects absolute confidence in its H2H success, offensive consistency and superior strength of schedule, while the moderate 135.5 total signifies the anticipated tug-of-war between high-octane scoring and an opponent attempting to grind games to a slower pace.

If we strip away the sportsbook’s vigorish (the built-in house edge), the implied odds reveal the true expected win probabilities for this matchup. Normalized for a vig-free market, Hofstra holds a 64.90% probability of securing the outright victory, leaving Monmouth with a 35.10% true probability of pulling off the upset.

For bettors looking to back either side on the moneyline, your potential return shifts dramatically based on risk. A standard $10 wager on the favored moneyline (-210) would net a $4.76 profit, resulting in a total payout of $14.76 if they advance. Alternatively, placing that same $10 bet on the underdog (+173) offers a much more lucrative return, generating a $17.30 profit for a total payout of $27.30 if they manage to extend their tournament run.

Kalshi has a ML market as well. At Kalshi, you can purchase a Hofstra to win contract for $0.67, which equates to -203 odds. A $10 investment would produce a $5profit in Hofstra wins. Monmouth to win contracts are trading for $0.36, or +178 odds. A $10 investment in Monmouth contracts would profit $18 if it pulls off the upset. In each case, the Kalshi contracts offer slightly more value than consensus lines.