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- Conor McGregor returns after five years to rematch Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event
- The odds point to a knockout, and that’s where the sharpest prop bets live
- See my favorite Holloway vs McGregor prop bets and the knockout markets to target below
McGregor is back. After five years away, Conor McGregor rematches Max Holloway in tonight’s UFC 329 main event, and this time they meet at 170 pounds. The ringwalks should land around 11 pm ET at T-Mobile Arena.
No belt is on the line, but the board is loaded. The big question is simple: will there be a knockout, and who lands it? That’s where the prop value lives.
Here are my favorite Holloway vs McGregor props for the card.
Holloway vs McGregor Prop Odds
Holloway is a heavy -275 favorite, an implied probability of about 73 percent. McGregor sits at +210. Both KO/TKO lines are much shorter than either decision price, so the market is betting on a knockout more than the scorecards.
Odds via BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC 329 or browse UFC betting apps.
Will There Be a Knockout?
Short answer: probably. Both KO/TKO prices are shorter than the decision numbers, and the distance line at +350 backs that up. Sportsbooks think someone gets finished.
The lean is Holloway. He’s -145 to win by KO/TKO or DQ, a better price than laying -275 on the moneyline. You target the most likely path and shave some juice. McGregor sits at +250, and while the public loves that ticket, the number reflects real risk.
The case for Holloway is volume. He piles up strikes and wears fighters down. Every McGregor knockout win came in the first or second round, so if he doesn’t land early, the finish threat swings the other way once he tires. A five-round fight at welterweight is a long time to hold that power.
Total Significant Strikes Props
This is where the styles split hard. Holloway throws in bunches. McGregor looks for one big shot. The strike totals are priced around that gap.
Holloway’s single-fight peak is enormous. He attempted 744 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar and landed 445. That’s a ceiling almost nobody reaches. If this fight gets to the later rounds, his volume climbs fast.
McGregor is the opposite. His peak volume sits at just 37 landed strikes on 76 attempts. He’s a precision hitter, and his output fades as his gas tank empties. His best accuracy came in a first-round finish over Donald Cerrone, so his numbers live in short bursts. I like Holloway over 100.5 strikes if you expect a full-length fight.
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Round and Finish Props
If you believe the knockout is coming, the next question is when. BetMGM lists exact time-and-round windows, and the pricing reads McGregor’s danger early and Holloway’s edge late.
Holloway has been knocked down three times in his last four fights, so his chin isn’t bulletproof. But his only knockout loss came in Round 3 against Ilia Topuria. He can take a shot and keep coming, which is why the market trusts him to survive McGregor’s early push.
McGregor’s Round 1 KO prop is the play if you want to back him at all. His power lives in that opening window. I wouldn’t touch McGregor in Rounds 3 through 5. Keep it early or leave it alone.
My favorite here is a Holloway finish in the second half. Once McGregor slows, the volume takes over. If you want a small hedge next to that KO play, the decision prop is worth a look.
To be clear, this isn’t a pick against Holloway to finish. It’s insurance on the same fighter. If McGregor survives five rounds, Holloway could just outwork him to the cards. At 5-to-1, it’s a cheap ticket to run alongside the KO so you cash either way Holloway wins.
Best Holloway vs McGregor Prop Bets
Playing Holloway at -275 straight up leaves value on the table. The KO/TKO prop at -145 is the smarter version of the same read. You get the favorite you want at a better number and target the outcome the whole board points toward.
Holloway over 100.5 significant strikes fits his volume history and a fight that likely runs long. The McGregor Round 1 KO is the only underdog angle I’d consider, and only in that first frame. Those are my best UFC 329 prop bets for the main event.
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DRAFTKINGS T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. Wagering offered by DK Sportsbook. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 6/28/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
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