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Reps. Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Mark Amodei (R-NV) have introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a bipartisan House bill that would prohibit federally registered trading platforms from listing sports and casino-style event contracts.
The measure is the House companion to a Senate version led by Sens. John Curtis (R-UT) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) and co-sponsored by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), introduced back in March.
Drawing the line between hedging and betting
Prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket sell event contracts that allow users to wager on outcomes, including which team will win a game, and generate revenue through fees rather than by taking the other side of a bet.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees these companies, which, according to the bill’s sponsors, carry fewer consumer protections than licensed sportsbooks and do not pay state gaming taxes. The operators are currently blocked from offering contracts in Nevada amid ongoing litigation.
The bill would prohibit sports and casino-style event contracts on federally registered exchanges while leaving other hedging instruments, including weather and economic contracts, under CFTC jurisdiction.
The legislation also includes a rule of construction stating that nothing in federal law preempts state or tribal authority over gaming, and it aims to resolve the jurisdictional question in statute rather than through CFTC rulemaking and any resulting litigation.
“When it looks like sports betting, it acts like sports betting, and profits from sports betting, then it should follow the same rules as every other sportsbook,” Horsford told The Nevada Independent in an interview. “Regardless of which app a consumer uses, they deserve the same protection, and that has been the gold standard of regulation that Nevada has been built on, and it’s what we are working to ensure is protected.”
In a separate statement announcing the bill, Horsford said the bill’s ultimate goal is to protect jobs, protect consumers and protect the integrity of Nevada’s gaming industry, which he called “the gold standard for gaming regulations.”
“These companies are exploiting a federal loophole that allows them to effectively sidestep state oversight that every other legal sportsbook must follow,” the representative said. “They’ve already cost states over $1 billion in lost gaming tax revenue money that should have gone toward funding schools, roads, and critical programs.”
“Gaming policy has long been the responsibility of states and tribes, not unelected federal regulators,” Amodei added. “This bipartisan bill closes a federal loophole that allows sports betting to masquerade as financial trading and ensures legitimate event contracts remain under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.”
Betting volume and industry impact
Data shows prediction market operators’ business model relies heavily on sports contracts, which can account for up to 90% of trade volume, even as they maintain they do not qualify as gambling because they do not profit when bettors lose.
By one estimate, prediction markets accounted for more than a quarter of all sports betting during the World Cup. Nevada sportsbooks, meanwhile, reported their lowest Super Bowl wagering totals in a decade this year.
State-regulated gaming brings in more than a third of Nevada’s total revenue and has become an increasing revenue source for other states as well.
The American Gaming Association (AGA), UNITE HERE and the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 are backing the legislation.
AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said the bill “reinforces Congressional intent that gaming is governed by state and tribal law,” calling the House and Senate bills a “bipartisan and bicameral effort to protect consumers, uphold state and tribal authority on regulating gaming, and stop so-called ‘prediction markets’ from offering backdoor sports betting that is siphoning billions of dollars in tax revenue from local communities across America.”
UNITE HERE President Gwen Mills said prediction market gambling “is threatening the livelihoods of over 100,000 UNITE HERE members who work in Tribal and commercial casinos across the country,” and urged Congress to “explicitly ban prediction market sports betting and casino games and reaffirm that gaming is governed by Tribal and state authorities.”
Culinary Union Secretary-Treasurer Ted Pappageorge said prediction markets “are threatening the jobs of 60,000 Culinary Union members who are employed at casino resorts on the Las Vegas Strip, in Downtown Las Vegas, and in Reno,” and thanked Schiff, Cortez Masto and Curtis for their roles in the Senate companion bill.
Sen. Schiff said sports prediction contracts amount to sports bets “just with a different name” and argued the CFTC has been “greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth” rather than enforcing existing law.
Sen. Curtis said the bill addresses concerns about young people’s exposure to “addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators.”
CFTC’s stance and competing bills
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig defended the commission’s authority over prediction market regulation in a February statement, and the commission proposed a rule last month that would permit sports contracts nationwide, a move Horsford described as leaving open a “backdoor” for sports betting even in states where such wagers are illegal.
When the Senate bill was introduced, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X, characterizing the effort as the “casino lobby hard at work.”
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act is one of several proposals targeting the industry. Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) has introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act, which would ban similar contracts but lacks a Republican co-sponsor or explicit language on state authority.
Reps. Blake Moore (D-UT) and Salud Carbajal (D-CA) have introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would go further by prohibiting contracts tied to elections, terrorism, war and assassinations.
Horsford said the more limited scope of his bill could make it more viable. “I’m proud and know that we will be able to make the case for why this targeted, bipartisan legislation should move forward,” he said. “Talking to colleagues on both sides of the aisle, they see this as a real problem.”
Horsford is also a co-sponsor of H.R. 7004, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would bar federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to place bets on prediction market contracts.