How to Play Ace-King Pre-Flop on a SCOOP Final Table

A deep run in the online poker tournament streets can sometimes produce spots that look straightforward at first glance but become far more complicated once you dig into the numbers.

During a recent PokerStars Spring Championship of Online Poker (SCOOP) event, PokerNews contributor Lukas Robinson found himself facing one of those decisions at the final table of the $109 Sunday Kickoff.

Holding A♠K♥ in the big blind with seven players remaining, Robinson was faced with a button shove and a call from the small blind. In chip EV the decision might seem simple, but once ICM pressure enters the equation, the situation becomes far less clear.

Using the multiway preflop AI solver available in GTO Wizard, Robinson analyzed the hand to determine whether calling with AKo was correct, or whether the optimal play was actually to find a fold.

Event Information

• Event: SCOOP 38-M: $109 NLHE [Sunday Kickoff], $125K GTD
• Players Left: 7
• Blind Levels: 300,000/600,000 (75,000 ante)

Stack Sizes, Positions and Payouts

The Hand

Action folded around to “andypr0” on the button, who moved all-in, covering both the small blind and Robinson in the big blind. “KAgouIAKbouI” in the small blind went deep into the tank before eventually making the call.

The action was then on Robinson in the big blind holding ace-king offsuit. After some thought, he decided to make the call.

“KAgouIAKbouI”: Q♥Q♦
“lukas_robo”: A♠K♥
“andypr0”: Q♠3♠

Runout: J♣9♣4♦3♦2♠

“KAgouIAKbouI” won the 39.7bb main pot with a pair of queens, while “andypr0” took the 1.62bb side pot with a pair of threes. Robinson was eliminated in seventh place for $3,449.02.

But was Robinson’s call actually correct, or should he have found a fold here with AKo? Let’s take a closer look.

Before analysing the spot from an ICM perspective, Robinson first used the multiway preflop AI feature to see how the hand should be played in chip EV.

Chip EV Solution

In Chip EV, the button is being recommended to open-jam 26.1% of hands and 2bb raise 10.8% of hands.

With no bubble factor or ICM pressure, AKo is a pure call, generating 5.7bb in EV.

Now let’s compare that with the ICM solution for this specific spot.

ICM Solution

Before looking at the recommended strategies from the ICM solver, it is important to examine the bubble factors, which have a massive impact on the players’ overall strategies in this spot.

• SB vs BTN Bubble Factor: 1.85
• SB vs BTN Risk Premium: +14.9%
• BB vs BTN Bubble Factor: 1.89
• BB vs BTN Risk Premium: +15.4%

BTN Range

Let’s compare these numbers with the Chip EV strategy.

• Chip EV Open Jam: 26.1%
• ICM Open Jam: 52.8%
• Chip EV 2bb Raise: 10.8%
• ICM 2bb Raise: 25.4%
• Chip EV Open Fold: 63.1%
• ICM Open Fold: 21.9%

What does this tell us?

The button is able to play far more hands aggressively due to the huge ICM pressure placed on both players in the blinds. Because the blinds require significantly more equity to continue in this spot, many hands that would normally be folds in Chip EV become profitable to either open-jam or raise.

SB Calling Range

The small blind is only calling 9.5% of hands even against this extremely wide all-in range due to the +14.9% risk premium.

After seeing both ranges and the bubble factor and risk premiums, what is the optimal play with AKo?

The answer might be surprising.

BB Calling Range

The correct answer: Fold

Calling with AKo in this spot cost Robinson $274 in EV.

However, Robinson does not mind the call, and here is why.

This was a SCOOP final table, and winning the tournament would mean becoming a SCOOP champion and taking home a SCOOP trophy. That has always been a personal goal of Robinson’s, so he approached the final table with the intention of playing for the win.

Even if that meant taking a slightly negative $EV decision in a spot like this if it increased his chances of winning the tournament.

The only two strong regulars remaining at the table were the BTN and SB. If Robinson won the hand and tripled up, he would become the chip leader with six players remaining while also eliminating one of the toughest players left in the field.

On top of that, having andypr0 directly to his right would have given Robinson a very favourable table dynamic moving forward.

Folding would have been the higher $EV decision and likely allowed Robinson to ladder up a few pay jumps.

However, his focus at the final table was on winning the tournament rather than maximising ladder potential.

In Robinson’s view, the upside of winning the pot, becoming chip leader with six players left, and removing a strong opponent from the table justified the call with AKo, even if it was slightly losing in terms of pure $EV.

It is a fascinating spot and a great example of just how much ICM pressure can influence optimal strategy at a final table when compared with Chip EV considerations.

PokerNews Ambassador Lukas “RobinPoker” Robinson is a professional poker player, streamer and content creator. In 2021, he gained significant recognition by setting a Twitch world record, streaming 1,000 hours of online poker over 100 days. Robinson also participated in the inaugural season of “Game of Gold.”