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Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket as authorities expand enforcement against online betting, after a prediction market wager on the possible early end of President Prabowo Subianto’s term circulated widely on social media.
The Communications and Digital Ministry said that platforms allowing wagers on specific event outcomes remain classified as gambling, even when presented as “prediction markets”. It also said the government would track social media accounts promoting the platform.
“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” the ministry said.
The action comes in the middle of a crackdown by Prabowo’s administration, which has blocked access to about 3.4 million websites and digital content deemed to facilitate betting activity since he took office in October 2024.
Gambling is banned nationally, but transactions linked to online gambling still reached about 286 trillion rupiah (US$16 billion) last year, according to the Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center.
The Polymarket wager was launched on May 21, one day after Prabowo announced plans to tighten government control over Indonesia’s major commodities exports. The proposal surprised investors, traders, and some officials. Local media reports say the move revived concerns over the credibility and transparency of policymaking under the former general.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Prabowo Subianto out as President of Indonesia by…?https://t.co/mqy9I4mmnq
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 21, 2026
The wager, promoted by Polymarket on X, offered three possible dates for when Prabowo would be out as president: the end of May, June, or December. The December option carried the highest probability at 12%, while total trading volume had exceeded US$44,000, according to the website. Prabowo’s term runs until October 2029.
Prediction-market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi Inc., have increasingly drawn regulatory attention as their popularity grows. Governments have raised concerns over gambling laws and the amplification of politically sensitive issues.
Singapore and Brazil have banned them, while Taiwan, Thailand, China, and Japan have imposed access limits. In India, such platforms have continued signing up customers despite regulator warnings that they are illegal. Polymarket has also faced scrutiny in the US, where there are no similar restrictions.
Last month, an Army special forces master sergeant was charged with using the platform to trade on classified information about the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with authorities alleging the bets generated US$400,000.