Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Gambling Rules

Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket as part of its wider enforcement campaign against online gambling, days after the prediction market drew attention for taking bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.

The Communications and Digital Ministry said the platform had been classified as an online gambling service under Indonesian law. Gambling is illegal in the country, and officials have been increasing efforts to restrict offshore betting platforms that target Indonesian users.

Alexander Sabar, director general of digital space supervision at the ministry, said Polymarket and similar services involve monetary wagering on uncertain outcomes.

“The government will not provide space for any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” Sabar said.

He added that prediction markets “contain elements of monetary betting and speculation over uncertain events, making them violate prevailing laws and regulations in Indonesia.”

Polymarket Market on Prabowo Draws Scrutiny

According to Reuters, Polymarket attracted attention in Indonesia after opening a market on when Prabowo would be “out as president.” His current term runs until 2029, after he took office in October 2024.

The wager appeared on May 21, one day after Prabowo announced a plan to centralise control over several of Indonesia’s most important commodity exports, including coal and palm oil. The policy drew attention from investors already watching the administration’s economic direction.

According to one report, the market had taken $51,530 in bets as of publication time and reflected an 11 percent implied chance that Prabowo would not remain in office through the year.

The ministry said it was also reviewing social media accounts affiliated with Polymarket as part of its response.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Indonesia Cites Online Gambling Concerns

Indonesia has struggled for years to curb online gambling activity, much of it linked to offshore websites. Authorities have repeatedly tried to block access to gambling sites, though the market has continued to grow.

Indonesians reportedly lost an estimated 327 trillion rupiah, or $18.4 billion, gambling online in 2023. Officials have framed the Polymarket restriction as part of a broader effort to protect citizens from unlicensed betting products.

Polymarket allows users to trade contracts tied to future events, including elections, sports, politics and other outcomes. Users can profit if their prediction proves correct, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of a given result.

The platform was founded in 2020 and has become one of the most visible companies in the prediction market sector. Its crypto-based model has also drawn regulatory scrutiny in several countries.

Prediction Markets Face Wider Pushback

Indonesia’s action places it among a growing number of countries that have moved against Polymarket. More than 30 countries have reportedly banned the platform. In Southeast Asia, Singapore added Polymarket to the Gambling Regulatory Authority blacklist in January 2025 as part of a crackdown on unlicensed online gambling.

The platform is also unavailable in Myanmar because of current U.S. sanctions.

Critics of prediction markets argue that the products often fall between gambling rules and financial regulations, creating legal uncertainty. Some also raise concerns about manipulation, market integrity and insider trading.

One report cited suspected cases in which connected Polymarket accounts allegedly earned more than $2.4 million betting on the timing of U.S. military actions in the Middle East, with a reported win rate of 98 percent.

In the United States, several states have argued that prediction markets offering sports-related contracts operate as illegal or unlicensed gambling products under local law. Operators and supporters of the sector generally argue that the contracts should fall under financial market rules rather than state gambling frameworks.

For Indonesia, the ministry’s position is more direct. Officials said Polymarket’s activity involves betting and speculation on unresolved events, which places it within the country’s prohibition on gambling.