Japan sees rise of point-based prediction markets amid gambling restrictions

Point-based prediction market platforms are gaining popularity in Japan, offering users a way to bet on real-world events without using real money and potentially avoiding the country’s strict gambling laws.

The emerging platforms, led by startup Miraima, allow users to predict the outcomes of real-world events—from sports matches and stock movements to political developments—and earn virtual points that can later be exchanged for gift cards or retail loyalty rewards instead of cash, The Japan Times reported.

The model mirrors Japan’s long-standing pachinko industry, which has remained legal by awarding prizes that can be indirectly converted into money through separate businesses rather than paying cash directly.

Launched in November, Miraima has attracted nearly one million monthly users within seven months, fueled by interest in major sporting events and Japan’s Lower House election earlier this year. The platform has become one of the country’s fastest-growing mobile applications, alongside other emerging services such as AI health tracker Calsee. Rival Poyp launched its prediction platform in March, while mobile gaming company Gumi introduced a point-based prediction game in June.

Unlike international prediction market operators such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to wager with money or cryptocurrency, Japanese platforms rely entirely on virtual points. Users earn points through account registration, watching advertisements, and playing in-app games before using them to make predictions. Successful predictions generate additional points that can be redeemed for rewards including Amazon gift cards or digital payment credits through services such as PayPay and Rakuten.

Miraima founder Keita Adachi said the platform was inspired by the rapid growth of prediction markets in the United States but adapted to comply with Japan’s legal environment. “Since real-money gambling isn’t possible, we built the platform around Japan’s strong gaming and point-collecting culture,” he said.

The popularity of the platforms reflects Japan’s growing “poi-katsu,” or point-collecting culture, in which consumers actively accumulate loyalty points through digital payment platforms and retail programs. Some users said the prediction games have become a regular part of their daily routines.

Although users do not risk losing real money, legal experts said the platforms could still face regulatory scrutiny because the rewards ultimately hold monetary value. “Our logic is that we don’t fall under cash-gambling restrictions because users don’t risk losing any assets with actual value,” said Poyp founder Takanori Shirasaka.

Japan’s gambling laws generally prohibit most forms of betting, with exceptions including horse racing, bicycle racing, boat racing, lotteries and pachinko. Habitual gambling remains punishable by up to three years in prison, effectively preventing widespread use of overseas prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Despite the restrictions, international operators are reportedly monitoring Japan’s market. The Japan Times reports that people familiar with the matter said Polymarket recently appointed a local representative to support lobbying efforts aimed at securing future regulatory approval.

Lawyers warned that point-based prediction markets could come under laws governing promotional sweepstakes, particularly if concerns arise over addictive behavior or participation by minors. Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, which require users to be at least 18 years old, Japan’s point-based prediction platforms currently do not impose age restrictions.