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Kalshi has launched a new hub for tracking the US midterm elections that gives users a market-based view of election races by drawing on prices from its event contracts, where traders buy and sell positions tied to political outcomes.
The “Midterms Hub” displays live prediction markets for Senate, House and Governor races, with the latest odds for individual contests shown across a map of the entire country.
Kalshi said its prices reflect the views of traders who are willing to risk money on an outcome, distinguishing the data from polling, which captures voters’ stated preferences.
Hub pairs odds with polling averages
Beyond the prediction markets themselves, the hub features polling averages sourced from VoteHub, allowing users to compare market odds against statistical surveys of voters. It also includes Federal Election Commission fundraising data for individual candidates, historical election results, and curated campaign news and analysis from various outlets.
Kalshi positioned the hub as a resource for voters, journalists, campaigns, policymakers, and researchers. About three-quarters of visitors to the platform don’t trade on contracts and instead use it only to check current odds.
CEO says market prices cut through polarization
In a statement to CNBC, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said prediction markets offer a unique perspective and are difficult to infiltrate with political bias.
“They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric,” said Mansour, an MIT grad and one-time trader at Citadel and analyst at Goldman Sachs. “That kind of clarity is rare right now, and that’s what people are getting with the Midterms Hub.”
Critics of prediction markets have raised concerns that prices could be influenced by speculative trading or by participants with access to insider information.
Launch builds on prior political products
The Midterms Hub is the latest step by Kalshi to build its political presence ahead of November’s elections. In May, the platform introduced the “American Power Index,” described as an “S&P 500” for politics, tracking which party is gaining or losing ground.
Kalshi is marking the hub’s release with an event in Washington, D.C., featuring political strategists and a live demonstration of the platform.
The launch comes as observers anticipate that the midterm election season will drive another spike in prediction market volume, following a similar pattern during the 2024 presidential election. More than $30 million has already been traded on contracts tied to which party will win the House and Senate in 2026.