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Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.
I place great faith in leadership approval ratings and the one that really stands out is more people saying Nigel Farage has got worse than he has improved.
If there is a poll showing the Tories ahead of Reform should make it less likely that Badenoch is ousted but that will be determinded by next May’s locals not opinion poll figures.
TSE