Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

• The Kentucky Derby kicks off the Triple Crown on Saturday from Churchill Downs. Start time is 6:57 pm ET.
• Which horse will reign supreme on the 1 1/4 mile track?
• My Horse Racing odds and picks, plus what to watch out for this Saturday evening can be found below.

The first race of the Triple Crown kicks off later today with the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby. It is indeed the most exciting two minutes of television and a chance to hear the famed “And down the stretch they come…”.

I’ll be backing several different horses and picks for Saturday. Read below for all the reasons why those selections stand out.

Latest Kentucky Derby Odds To Win

This race is expected to deliver plenty of intrigue and, of course, ways to get more wagers to win more dollars. There are quite a few options, along with more horse racing betting news. With a mere few dollars, one can spread those wagers around.

Kentucky Derby Picks To Win

Pick 1: Emerging Market at 10:1
Pick 2: Chief Wallabee at 8:1

The dilemma with the Kentucky Derby odds is that when the posts came out, Renegade (opened 4:1) was placed on the rail. It was something that scared bettors out of their minds. Some other trends did as well, including a chillier than usual Saturday in May (forecast is 59 degrees with a slight Northerly wind). With blazing speed not entirely expected, the track itself will still be rated as fast.

Taking a bit of swing here is in our DNA. Emerging Market was thrown into the Louisiana Derby (1 3/16 miles) and shocked the field by wearing down the more experienced Pavlovian to win by a head. It was only Emerging Markets’ second start. Stamina and distance will not be an issue as the horse has looked great when it comes to his early gallops. Again, one will hear lots about horses like Commandment and So Happy (and rightfully so). However, kicking up for potential is a theme here.

Next up is Chief Wallabee, who carries their own risk in the 20-horse field of three-year-olds. He barely lost to Commandment twice, and the old adage of any given Saturday rings true here. This horse has enjoyed Churchill Downs this week, and the early pace could work to his advantage late.

Kentucky Derby Place And Show Picks

Place Pick: Commandment at 7:2
Show Pick: So Happy at 5:2

When looking at the field, there is a lack of coherence compared to previous years. We have seen too often where sudden horses who shorten on the moneyline get nipped down the stretch. This could be the case for both of these horses. Commandment has pulled off a dramatic win or two, but the tables may be turned here. So Happy showed a 100 speed rating in his last race, but Churchill Downs is a different beast.

Okay, these wagers are somewhat conservative in nature. Do not worry much about a pop-up shower, as the drying trend is expected to start later in the afternoon. Commandment suits the race, but riders seem to come and go. Then, there is So Happy, who can keep up at the 1 1/4 mile distance but may not have enough to win. That 1/8 mile difference from the Santa Anita Derby might become prophetic.

A Few Exotic Options

Kentucky Derby 2025 odds taught us a few lessons here. Exotic picks are a nice way of saying horse racing parlays. Adding these as box picks allows us to still win even if the order is not correct. The horses just have to finish within the parameter. A trifecta box means win-place-show without order. The superfecta would involve four horses. However, one of our riskier wagers goes for the Exacta first, and then we introduce the Key Box. The Key must finish first, and the box part order does not matter.

Exotic Pick 1:

• Chief Wallabee (Win) and Commandment (Place)
• This pays out at 48:1 for the Exacta.

Exotic Pick 2:

• Emerging Market with Renegade and Commandment
• Emerging Market is our Key with the other two horses as the box
• This pays out 6x the wager

Good luck!