Liberty vs Mercury Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds for Game 3

• The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury meet in a decisive Game 3 on Friday
• The Mercury are modest home favorites in the Liberty vs Mercury odds
• Below, see my Liberty vs Mercury picks, plus the player props and latest betting lines

If the New York Liberty (27-17, 10-12 away, 15-27-2 ATS) are going to defend their WNBA title, they will first need to get past the Phoenix Mercury (27-17, 15-7 home, 21-22-1 ATS) in Game 3 of their first-round series. A poor finish to the regular season dropped the Liberty to fifth, meaning they didn’t get home-court advantage in their best-of-three affair with the Mercury and tonight’s decisive Game 3 will take place at PHX Arena in Phoenix (6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET).

The good news for New York is that the home team has yet to win a game in the series. The Liberty took Game 1 on the road (76-69 OT) before the Mercury answered back with their own dominant Game 2 victory (86-60).

Oddsmakers have set Phoenix as a slight favorite in the Liberty/Mercury Game 3 spread.

Liberty vs Mercury Odds (Game 3)

The Liberty vs Mercury point spread is Phoenix -2.5 across the board. Bettors won’t get a better price than -110 (at FanDuel) on Phoenix to cover. BetMGM has the Liberty at -105 to cover the spread. On the moneyline, Caesars has the longest moneyline odds on a New York upset (+122) while ESPN Bet and bet365 have the best Mercury moneyline (-140).

The game total is 155.5 at almost all books. BetMGM is the exception, listing it at 156.5, making it the best option for under bettors, though there is -118 juice on the under.

Odds as of 3:40 pm ET. Claim the bet365 bonus code before betting on Liberty/Mercury tonight.

The updated WNBA championship odds show that New York has faded to a +1500 longshot, second-worst of the five remaining teams. Phoenix is slightly shorter at +1400.

The Mercury turned Game 2 into a laugher early, taking a 14-point lead into halftime and stretching it to 22 by the end of three. The New York offense was abysmal, shooting just 30.2% from the floor. No Liberty player had more than Emma Meesseman’s 11 off the bench.

Laboring under a knee injury, Breanna Stewart played just 20 minutes. Stewart isn’t on the Game 3 injury report, but based on her player props (see below), oddsmakers don’t expect her to be anywhere near full speed.

As they have all season, the Mercury got contributions from up and down the roster in their Game 2 blowout victory. Five different players scored between 10 and 15 points.

NY Liberty vs PHX Mercury Player Props for Game 3

Sabrina Ionescu (18.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.7 APG) has a point total of just 17.5 ahead of Game 3, which is down a full point from Game 2 and the under is heavily favored at -140.

Stewart (18.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.5 APG) has a total of just 13.5 O/U. She’s averaged just 12.0 PPG through two playoff games, 6.3 points fewer than she averaged in the regular season.

On the Phoenix side, Alyssa Thomas (15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 9.2 APG) has the highest numbers across the board, sitting at 15.5 points O/U (tied with Copper), 9.5 rebounds O/U and 8.5 assists O/U. Thomas had 15, 6 and 7 in Game 2.

Liberty vs Mercury Picks & Predictions

• Mercury moneyline (-140) at ESPN Bet – two units
• Ionescu under 17.5 points (-140) at DraftKings

The Liberty looked like they were on fumes on Wednesday. Now, just 48 hours and one cross-country flight later, they are back in action against one of the deepest, most well-rounded teams in the league.

I have a lot of appreciation for New York’s championship pedigree, but that starts with Stewart, who is a shell of herself at the moment. Looking back, it’s a minor miracle the Liberty were able to steal Game 1 on the road. The Liberty have been a bad road team all season, while the Mercury were eight games over .500 at PHX Arena.

If Stewart was playing like the two-time finals MVP we’ve seen in years past, I would have a very hard time fading the reigning-champion Liberty in a must-win game. She’s just not, sadly, and the Mercury are going to win this one going away.

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