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- The Lightning are -140 road favorites over the Wild on Tuesday night at Grand Casino Arena
- Both teams sit on 80 points and are trying to snap two-game losing streaks, with Kirill Kaprizov one goal from the Wild’s all-time franchise record
- Read my Lightning vs Wild prediction and prop picks below, plus the latest odds and starting goalies for Tuesday night
Two Stanley Cup contenders with identical 80-point totals collide Tuesday night as the Tampa Bay Lightning (38-16-4) visit the Minnesota Wild (35-16-10) at Grand Casino Arena. Both clubs are looking to snap two-game losing streaks, and the latest NHL odds have Tampa Bay as moderate road favorites.
Puck drop is set for 9:30 pm ET on TNT. Here are my Lightning vs Wild prediction and prop picks, plus the latest odds and starting goalies.
Lightning vs Wild Prediction
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My Lightning vs Wild prediction is on Tampa Bay to win outright on the road. The Lightning lead the Atlantic Division at 38-16-4 and have been one of the best road teams in hockey at 19-6-4 away from home. Despite dropping back-to-back games to Carolina and Buffalo, they’re still 19-3-1 in their last 23 overall.
Tampa Bay allows just 2.48 goals per game (2nd in the NHL) and only 26.64 shots against (3rd). Minnesota gives up 30.10 shots against per game (21st), and their penalty kill is a liability at 77.6% (24th) against a Lightning power play clicking at 21.9%.
Lightning vs Wild Key Stats
Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to Utah and St. Louis after opening the post-Olympic schedule with a 5-2 win over Colorado. The Wild managed just one goal against the Blues, and their offense has gone cold at the worst time.
The home team has won 21 of the last 27 meetings in this series, which would favour Minnesota, but the Lightning are 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Tampa’s also 4-0 in their last four against the Central Division. I’ll take the Lightning at a reasonable price.
Lightning vs Wild Prop Picks
This is my favorite Lightning vs Wild prop pick. Raddysh ranks second among defensemen in shots on target over the last 10 games, clearing 2.5 in nine of those contests. He’s also hit the scoresheet in 16 of his last 20 games with 27 total points.
The matchup is ideal. Minnesota ranks dead last in suppressing shots from defensemen and 30th defending Raddysh’s primary shooting zone over the last 10 games. He’s had 3+ shots in 10 of his last 12 against bottom-10 teams in shots allowed to blueliners.
Kaprizov is one goal from breaking the Wild’s all-time franchise record, and his shot volume has been through the roof chasing it. He’s exceeded 3.5 shots in eight of his last nine home games against teams with winning records, averaging 5.0 per game in that stretch.
At -107, I’m getting near coin-flip odds on a player who should be firing constantly in a milestone game.
Lightning vs Wild Odds
Odds as of March 3 via consensus sportsbooks. New bettors can claim the Bet365 bonus code and get a sign-up bonus to bet on tonight’s NHL action.
The latest Lightning vs Wild odds have Tampa Bay around -140 on the moneyline, with Minnesota at +120 as the home underdog. The total is set at 6 goals (-125 over, +105 under), and the puck line has Tampa at -1.5 (+190).
Lightning vs Wild Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy is the likely starter for Tampa Bay after being the first goalie off the ice at morning skate. He carries a 27-8-3 record with a 2.27 GAA and .913 save percentage, making him a frontrunner in the Vezina Trophy odds. His last start was ugly (five goals on 14 shots vs Buffalo), but he had a nine-game winning streak before that with a 1.63 GAA and .938 save percentage.
Vasilevskiy vs Gustavsson Stats
Filip Gustavsson is confirmed to start for Minnesota. He fell out of favour for Team Sweden at the Olympics but has come back sharp, saving 65 of 68 shots (.956 SV%) in two games since the break. He’ll face a much stiffer test tonight against a Tampa offense averaging 3.53 goals per game.
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