Losses Projected in Tribal Gaming Because of Pediction Markets

Leaders from the tribal gaming sector are raising concerns that the continued expansion of prediction markets could significantly reduce casino revenue that supports tribal governments and public services, even as newly released industry figures show commercial and tribal gaming revenues remain at record levels.

The issue took center stage at the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association (OIGA) Conference and Trade Show, where tribal representatives discussed what they view as one of the most serious challenges facing the industry. Their warnings come as federal regulators move closer to finalizing proposed rules governing prediction market event contracts.

James Siva, chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) and vice chairman of the Morongo Band of Mission Indians, said tribal operators are already seeing signs of financial pressure from the growing popularity of prediction markets.

According to Siva, preliminary estimates suggest tribal gaming revenue has already been reduced by approximately 5% as prediction markets gain traction. He warned that the impact could deepen substantially if current trends continue.

“If they are allowed to expand, we’re talking maybe we have a 25% gross gaming revenue loss within the next year,” Siva said according to The Journal Record. “Put it in congressional numbers, and that’s equivalent of defunding the BIA, the (Bureau of Indian Education) and Indian Health Services. That’s how much revenue that we all use to improve the lives of our citizens that is potentially leaving Indian country.”

Tribal Leaders Voice Concerns Over Expanding Markets

Siva’s remarks formed part of a keynote discussion focused on the implications of prediction markets for tribal gaming operations. The panel also included Iowa Tribe of Oklahoma Business Committee Secretary Christie Modlin and Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association Chairman Matthew Morgan, who served as moderator.

Tribal leaders argue that prediction market operators are increasingly entering areas traditionally associated with regulated gaming while operating under a different federal framework. Many tribes hold exclusive gaming compacts with state governments and view sports-related event contracts as a challenge to those arrangements.

Siva described prediction markets as operating outside the regulatory structure that governs tribal and commercial casinos.

“It’s just the Wild West for these guys,” Siva said. “There’s no jobs being created. There’s no improvements to local communities. There’s not even any money going back into the American economy. Most of this investment is private equity, foreign investment, so all of these dollars are leaving. There’s no consumer protections. This is far away from the fundamental, safe, well-regulated industry we’ve created.”

He also characterized the issue as an unprecedented threat to the sector.

“This is the most important, dangerous threat we have ever seen to this industry,” Siva said. “It has the fundamental ability to reshape and reform what gaming is in this country.”

Industry groups have also expressed concern over the potential economic impact. Earlier this year, the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated that prediction markets had diverted approximately $1 billion in tax revenue that would otherwise have gone to states and tribal governments. That estimate has since risen to $1.21 billion, according to the trade association.

Regulatory Debate Moves Toward Next Stage

Attention is now focused on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees prediction markets and is nearing completion of proposed rule amendments addressing event contracts.

The agency’s proposed revisions would introduce a three-part framework for determining whether contracts involve unlawful activity, terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or matters deemed contrary to the public interest. The proposals would also revise the legal definition of gaming, a change that tribal leaders and state regulators have criticized.

Public comments on the proposed rules are scheduled to close Monday.

Morgan suggested that the publication of final rules could trigger significant legal action from tribes and other stakeholders.

“I think that is the lever that Indian country is waiting for,” Morgan said. “When they finally publish those rules, they make their intent clear: ‘We don’t care what (the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act) says. We don’t care what your tribal government says. We don’t care what your state government says. We’re going to do this regardless.’ I think that’s the case that starts really making noise.”

He added that disputes surrounding prediction markets may ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

Despite his concerns about the regulatory landscape, Morgan expressed confidence in the industry’s ability to respond to new challenges.

“(It’s not) like we’ve never gone through trials and tribulations, challenges to tribal government,” Morgan said. “We’re used to people coming and saying, ‘Hey, I want to take that.’ We’re used to defending what’s ours.”

Revenue Records Contrast With Industry Warnings

While tribal leaders continue to sound alarms, the latest financial reports from both commercial and tribal gaming sectors show continued growth.

The AGA’s Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker reported that U.S. commercial gaming generated a record $7.06 billion in revenue during May 2026, representing a 4.6% increase from the same month a year earlier. Through the first five months of the year, commercial gaming revenue reached $34 billion, up 6.4% year over year.

Sports betting results were more mixed. Revenue from sports wagering declined 1.8% in May compared with the prior year, a result the AGA partly attributed to the growth of prediction markets. However, sports betting revenue for the January-to-May period remained 8.5% higher than during the same period in 2025.

The tribal gaming sector also reported record performance. According to the National Indian Gaming Commission, tribal operators generated $46.2 billion in gross gaming revenue during fiscal year 2025, an increase of 5.3% from the previous year and the highest annual total ever recorded for Indian gaming.

Seven of the NIGC’s eight regions posted year-over-year revenue growth, with only the Rapid City region reporting a slight decline.