Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta reportedly exploring launch of prediction markets app as sector booms

Meta is reportedly developing a prediction markets smartphone application internally known as “Arena”, as Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg seeks to capitalize on the rapid growth of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Arena is being built by a small team at Meta and is expected to operate independently from the company’s social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, the New York Times reported ‌on Tuesday.

The application would initially use a video game-style points system rather than real-money wagering, though the company has reportedly not ruled out introducing cash betting in the future, according to two employees with knowledge of the matter.

The sources said the project is considered experimental but has been designated a priority internally as Meta looks for new avenues of growth and user engagement.

The move comes as prediction markets have emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of online trading and betting. Kalshi and Polymarket generated a combined $50 billion in trading volume in 2025, with total volumes already exceeding $130 billion this year.

Meta reported 3.56 billion daily active users across its family of applications in April and plans to leverage that audience to help drive adoption of Arena.

The initiative aligns with Zuckerberg’s long-standing strategy of responding to shifts in online user behavior by launching products that mirror emerging digital trends. Meta is also testing other standalone applications, including Meta Photos, an artificial intelligence-powered media creation app.

The company previously experimented with prediction markets through Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction app launched in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecast relied on a points-based system and was discontinued in 2022.

The growing popularity of prediction markets has attracted new entrants ranging from gambling operators and cryptocurrency exchanges to media companies. Brokerage Bernstein estimated in April that the sector could expand to $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade.

The industry’s growth has also drawn increased regulatory scrutiny. U.S. authorities and lawmakers have raised concerns that prediction markets could create opportunities for insider trading and market manipulation.

In April, federal prosecutors in New York charged a member of the U.S. Special Forces with using confidential information to place bets linked to a top-secret operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors alleged the trader earned more than $400,000 from the wagers.

U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal criticized Meta’s reported plans in a social media post. “Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market,” Blumenthal wrote. He also described Meta’s business model as “profiting from addiction.”

Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market. Meta’s business model is profiting from addiction—kids, gamblers, & more. Stop it through KOSA & my prediction markets bills. https://t.co/e9tG1X8Fho

— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) June 23, 2026

Meta has not publicly confirmed the project, and people familiar with the matter cautioned that Arena remains under development and may ultimately never be released.