McGregor vs Holloway 2 Start Time, Closing Odds and Last-Minute Prop Prediction

• Conor McGregor faces Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event Saturday, July 11th
• McGregor and Holloway are up next in the main event, with ringwalks projected for late in the night
• See my last-minute McGregor vs Holloway prop prediction and the closing odds below

It’s almost time. Conor McGregor returns to the cage Saturday night to face Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It’s a welterweight rematch 13 years in the making, and the odds have plenty to say about how it plays out.

Here’s when McGregor and Holloway walk to the Octagon, what the closing odds look like on Kalshi, and my last-minute prop prediction.

McGregor vs Holloway 2 Start Time

The UFC 329 main card kicked off at 9 pm ET / 6 pm PT on Paramount+. With Gable Steveson, Royval vs Kavanagh, Sandhagen vs Bautista, and the Pimblett vs Saint-Denis co-main going first, McGregor and Holloway should make their walks around 11:25 pm ET / 8:25 pm PT.

That’s a projection, not a hard time. If the co-main goes the distance, the ringwalks push later, closer to 8:45 pm PT out west. If there’s an early finish or two, it could land sooner.

McGregor vs Holloway 2 Closing Odds

The market has spoken, and it’s leaning hard on Holloway. On Kalshi, Holloway sits at 72 cents to win, an implied probability of about 71%. McGregor comes back at 29 cents, or roughly 29%. Volume on this fight has blown past $61 million.

Here’s the interesting part. The public is all over McGregor, but the money that moves markets isn’t. BetMGM has McGregor as the most-bet fighter on the entire card, yet his price has drifted the wrong way for backers. Holloway has ticked up two points on Kalshi in the final hours while McGregor’s knockout path took the biggest hit, dropping five points.

That’s the classic McGregor pattern. His name pulls casual money like nothing else in the sport, but the sharp side keeps siding with the more active fighter. You can trade this one live on Kalshi, where the prediction markets let you see that tug-of-war play out in real time.

It’s a notable reversal from earlier in the week, too. McGregor had climbed to around 35% on Kalshi a few days ago as the public money poured in. He’s since slipped back to 29% as fight time approaches, which is the market correcting toward Holloway rather than away from him.

Prediction market prices via Kalshi ahead of Saturday’s main event. Grab a Kalshi sign-up bonus to trade on UFC 329.

McGregor vs Holloway 2 Prop Prediction

Laying 72 cents on Holloway straight up doesn’t do much for me. There’s no margin there. I’d rather target how this fight actually ends, and the method markets point in one direction.

Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ sits at 51 cents on Kalshi. That number tells you the market expects a finish, and I think Holloway is the one who gets it. He showed his late-fight power when he flatlined Justin Gaethje in the fifth round at UFC 300. McGregor, meanwhile, has faded badly in the later stages of his recent fights.

McGregor’s whole shot is landing something big early. If his left hand connects clean in the first round or two, he can end anyone’s night. But the longer this goes, the more Holloway’s volume takes over. I expect him to weather the early storm, turn up the pace, and get McGregor out of there in the second half of the fight.

• McGregor vs Holloway Prop Prediction: Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ (51¢ on Kalshi)

How to Watch McGregor vs Holloway 2

UFC 329 streams exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States. The main card is live now at 9 pm ET / 6 pm PT, with McGregor and Holloway expected around 11:25 pm ET / 8:25 pm PT.