Mets vs Cubs Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Apr 19)

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The New York Mets (7-14, 4-8 away, 9-10-2 O/U) look to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs (11-9, 6-5 home, 12-7-1 O/U) when the teams meet in the series finale at Wrigley Field on April 19. First pitch is scheduled for 1:20 pm CT/2:20 pm ET and will be broadcast on MLB Network and regional affiliates.

The home-favorite Cubs have outscored the Mets 16-6 in the first two games of the series, which included a 12-4 drubbing on Friday and a tight 4-2 victory last night. Carson Kelly broke a 1-1 tie in the 6th with a three-run shot. off reliever Brooks Raley.

With Chicago’s Javier Assad (1-1, 8.10 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) starting opposite New York opener Tobias Myers (0-1, 3.46 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), oddsmakers have established the Cubs as modest home chalk.

Mets vs Cubs Odds

Chicago enters this afternoon’s matchup as -140 moneyline favorites. Meanwhile, the slumping Mets sit at +120, offering a potential plus-money payout for those backing an outright win. On the runline, bettors looking for a larger payout can grab the home team to win by multiple runs at +158.

Prediction site Kalshi is offering even better prices. The Mets are currently trading at 44c (equal to +127 odds) with Chicago trading at 57c (equal to -133 odds).

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The betting market has experienced significant movement since these lines first opened. The game total initially opened at 8.5 but has since been adjusted down to a flat 8.0. Interestingly, this half-run drop occurred despite a massive 82.7% of tickets and 87.0% of the overall stake coming in on the Over. Sharp money likely forced sportsbooks to lower the number.

The spread and moneyline have also shifted heavily. Chicago opened as a moderate -125 favorite before public action pushed the line to -140. The runline saw a dramatic adjustment, flipping from the Cubs receiving 1.5 runs (-190) to being installed as the -1.5 (+158) favorite.

Mets vs Cubs Picks & Predictions

While Chicago’s lineup has been swinging hot bats, the pitching mismatch points toward the road underdogs. Taking the Mets moneyline (+120) offers the best betting value today. The justification comes down to the stark contrast on the mound. Cubs starter Javier Assad has struggled mightily this season, ballooning to an 8.10 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP across 10.0 innings in two starts.

Opposing hitters are teeing off on Assad with a .300 batting average, and his command has been shaky at 3.60 walks per nine innings. On the flip side, right-hander Tobias Myers has been a stabilizing force in New York’s rotation. Through 39 innings, Myers boasts a sharp 3.46 ERA and an elite 0.769 WHIP, walking a microscopic 0.69 batters per nine innings.

Even though Chicago holds a superior team OPS (.725 compared to New York’s .653 on the road), Myers’ ability to limit baserunners makes the visitors a highly live underdog. New York is mired in a severe slump, going 0-10 over their last 10 contests. However, Myers’ 3.24 xFIP suggests his solid start is no fluke, providing a clear mathematical edge to snap the skid.

Moneyline Pick: Mets (+127 at KALSHI)

My best player prop is Javier Assad Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-162 at Caesars). Assad’s strikeout numbers simply do not support a line this high, as he currently averages just 5.40 strikeouts per nine innings.

To clear this number, Assad would likely need to pitch deep into the game, a tall task for a pitcher carrying an ERA north of eight. The Over has cashed in 70.0% of Chicago’s last 10 games, and I expect New York’s offense to generate enough early traffic to chase him out before he can rack up punchouts.

Best Player-Prop Pick: Assad Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-162 at CAESARS)

Mets vs Cubs Betting Splits

Sunday’s MLB public betting splits show the action is heavily skewed toward the home team. The betting public is heavily backing Chicago to secure an outright victory, with 70.2% of all moneyline tickets riding on the favorites. The money percentage tells a nearly identical story, as 74.3% of the total financial stake backs the home dugout.

Because both the ticket count and the overall money percentage easily exceed 60% on the same side, this does not qualify as a traditional sharp vs public situation. Instead, it highlights a massive, unified market consensus. By recommending New York, I am officially taking a contrarian position today, fading both the general public and the bulk of the monetary handle.

While the moneyline action is unified, the runline splits show a fascinating divergence. An overwhelming 75.5% of betting tickets are laying the runs with Chicago. However, the money drops significantly to just 53.8%. Conversely, New York is commanding 46.2% of the total money despite receiving only 24.5% of the tickets.

The fact that the road team is drawing nearly half of the total financial stake on less than a quarter of the tickets indicates larger, more respected wagers are backing them to keep this game competitive. Finally, a staggering 82.7% of tickets and 87.0% of the money are hammering the Over, validating my expectation of early runs against Assad.

Mets vs Cubs Injury Reports

Injuries play a massive role in handicapping any daily MLB slate, and both of these dugouts are currently managing crowded training rooms. Chicago enters this matchup with 11 active injuries, while New York is navigating nine absences of their own.

The visitors’ offensive struggles – averaging just 3.33 runs per game on the road – are sharply contextualized by the absence of superstar outfielder Juan Soto. With Soto on the 10-day IL due to a calf injury, the team loses arguably their best on-base threat. Combined with Jorge Polanco sitting out, the lineup is alarmingly thin.

This puts immense pressure on Francisco Lindor to shoulder the offensive burden. For Chicago, the offensive core is mostly intact, which explains their robust 5.09 runs per game at home. However, their pitching staff is decimated. Manager Craig Counsell is navigating life without frontline starters Justin Steele and Matthew Boyd.

This severe structural shift forces struggling back-end arms like Assad to take the mound. To make matters worse, the bullpen is missing multiple key contributors, including Hunter Harvey. If the visitors capitalize early, the depleted bullpen will be forced to cover heavy innings, creating a prime environment for late-game scoring.

Batter-vs-Pitcher Stats: Myers vs Assad

The tables below list the lifetime stats for both starting lineups against today’s starter, starting with the Cubs starting nine against Myers. Note that Myers is a relief pitcher who will not go more than three innings max.

Cubs Hitters vs Tobias Myers

The next table lists the Mets’ starters career numbers against Javier Assad.

Mets Hitters vs Javier Assad