Mets vs Reds Predictions & Player-Prop Picks (June 17)

• Back the Mets to avoid the sweep today against the Reds
• Cincy starter Nick Lodolo boasts an ugly 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP
• Get the Mets vs Reds predictions and player prop picks for June 17th, below

The Cincinnati Reds (34-37) and New York Mets (32-40) wrap-up their series this afternoon at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:40 PM ET, with the MLB weather forecast calling for a sun-cloud mix and 75 degree temperatures.

After dominating the first two games of this series, the Reds are looking to complete the sweep. Cincinnati relied on a four-run first inning and home runs from Spencer Steer and Sal Stewart to secure a 5-3 win last night. Meanwhile, New York fell short despite a clean defensive showing and a home run from Mark Vientos.

Below, you’ll find my top Mets vs Reds predictions and player prop picks for the June 17th showdown.

Mets vs Reds Predictions

My top wagers for this contest are the Mets moneyline and Over 9 runs. When breaking down the pitching splits in the MLB starting lineups, the data points heavily toward the road favorites.

Nolan McLean takes the mound for New York sporting a 4.01 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 76.1 innings pitched. Conversely, Cincinnati will hand the ball to Nick Lodolo, who enters the game with an inflated 5.21 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP across 38.0 innings.

The broader staff numbers reflect a similar gap. The Mets pitching staff combines for a 3.98 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, noticeably outperforming the Reds’ 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Given the pitching disparity and Lodolo’s tendency to allow traffic, New York presents the most logical betting value.

As for the total, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allows a .249 opponent batting average, leaving plenty of opportunities for New York hitters to capitalize on the basepaths. Also working in favor of the over, is the fact that Great American Ball Park is the second most hitter friendly venue per the MLB park factors.

Nolan McLean vs Nick Lodolo Stats

The starting pitching matchup features two arms trending in different directions. McLean operates as a reliable strikeout arm, fanning batters at a high 10.38 K/9 clip while limiting opponents to a .203 batting average.

Lodolo counters for the hometown Reds looking to improve upon a shaky start to his campaign. His underlying metrics do not offer much hope for imminent positive regression. His ballooned 6.07 FIP suggests he has been fortunate to avoid yielding even more damage.

Mets vs Reds Stats

To grasp the dynamics of this contest, I look at how these offenses operate in their respective splits. The Reds compensate for a dismal .218 team batting average at home by utilizing the hitter-friendly dimensions of Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the league in home runs per game in their own stadium (1.54), leveraging a top-five average exit velocity of 89.3 mph.

New York struggles immensely to push runs across the plate while traveling. They rank 28th in road scoring with just 3.59 runs per game, bogged down by an anemic .645 road OPS. Interestingly, New York matches Cincinnati perfectly in average exit velocity (89.3 mph), proving they make enough hard contact to give Lodolo plenty of trouble.

Mets vs Reds Odds

Odds as of June 17. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB today.

Mets vs Reds Player Prop Picks

Moving over to the MLB props market, where I’m also targeting Mark Vientos Over 0.5 Hits. Vientos is a reliable bat when traveling, exceeding 0.5 hits in five of his last six road games according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. Zooming out, he has cleared this mark in 10 of his last 14 games overall.