Michigan vs USC Predictions, Picks & Player Props

• USC hosts No. 15 Michigan in a Big Ten battle tonight on NBC at 7:30 p.m. ET
• The Trojans are favored by 2.5-points but are coming off a heartbreaking 34-32 loss to Illinois on a last-second field goal.
• Check out my Michigan vs USC prediction, special picks, and player props for tonight’s primetime showdown

They’ve met in more Rose Bowls than any other pairing (eight times), and tonight USC (4-1; 2-3 ATS) takes on Michigan (4-1; 2-3 ATS) in a regular-season Big Ten contest at the LA Coliseum.

USC leads the all-time series 6-5. Michigan triumphed last year in Ann Arbor 27-24 as 4-point underdogs. This is a battle of two young quarterbacks, true freshman Bryce Underwood for the Wolverines and Jayden Maiava for the Trojans.

I’ve got my eye on some intriguing prop bets on the QBs, plus my Michigan vs USC picks and prediction for tonight’s clash on NBC.

Michigan vs USC Predictions & Picks

• Michigan ML (+122 at FanDuel)

• Over 56.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Michigan’s offense struggled in last week’s 24-10 win over Wisconsin, but there were always going to be growing pains with Underwood this season. The true freshman threw for a career-high 270 yards against the Badgers.

He’s shown improved chemistry with receivers Donaven McCulley (19 catches) and Semaj Morgan (16 catches) since the early-season loss to Oklahoma. Underwood has completed 67.9% of his passes in his last outing.

USC’s defense is going to struggle to stop Michigan running back Justice Haynes, who ranks fifth nationally with 654 rushing yards and has punched in eight touchdowns.

The Trojans allow 227 rushing yards per game (17th in the nation), which could spell trouble against Michigan’s balanced attack that averages 240.4 yards on the ground.

The Trojans counter with their own elite running back in Waymond Jordan, who’s 11th in the nation with 537 yards. But the difference-maker for me is Michigan’s stout defense, led by Jaishawn Barham (three sacks, five TFLs).

The Wolverines rank 22nd nationally in scoring defense (16.2 ppg) and boast the nation’s 9th-best defense with 3.20 sacks per game. They’re also forcing 1.40 interceptions per game (9th nationally).

Recent history also favors the underdog here. USC is just 1-5 ATS after a bye week and 2-7 ATS in their last nine October games.

Meanwhile, the Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, but that trend collides with their struggles against quality competition. With Michigan’s defense traveling well and USC’s defensive vulnerabilities, I see value on the Wolverines getting points.

Michigan vs USC Player Props

Here are my favorite Michigan vs USC props for tonight’s Big Ten showdown.

Bryce Underwood Anytime TD (+170 at FanDuel)

Underwood was a highly-touted five-star prospect coming out of high school and has looked the part for most of the season. Only against Oklahoma did he struggle (37.5% completion rate).

He’s already got three rushing touchdowns this season and has shown mobility with his legs. I love the value here on a quarterback sneak or scramble for Underwood.

USC has allowed a 96.55% touchdown rate to opponents in the red zone (103rd nationally), making this prop even more enticing.

Bryce Underwood Over 183.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Let’s stick with the true freshman for our second prop pick. Since the Oklahoma loss, Underwood has shown improved connection with his wide receivers. He’s averaging over 200 passing yards in his other four games.

Illinois moved the ball through the air on USC (Luke Altmyer threw for 331 yards). With USC ranking just 21st in passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.40), I think Underwood will find success through the air.

The Trojans’ aggressive defensive approach often leaves their secondary vulnerable to big plays.

Waymond Jordan Under 78.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Michigan’s defense is 21st in the nation in scoring and seventh against the run, allowing just 77 yards per game this season. They’ve been particularly stingy at the line of scrimmage.

The Wolverines rank 11th nationally with 11 tackles for loss per game. USC’s offensive line is good, but with Michigan likely stacking the box to stop Jordan, the Trojans will be forced to rely on Maiava’s arm.

Jordan has also been less effective recently, and Michigan’s front seven should control the line of scrimmage tonight.

Michigan vs USC Betting Markets

Odds as of Oct. 11 at Caesars. Check out Caesars Rewards and join the Caesars Empire before Michigan takes on USC.

The line has remained steady all week with USC as 2.5-point favorites. There’s been some wiggle in the total though – it’s 54.5 at Fanatics, 55.5 at BetMGM and 56.5 everywhere else.

Spoiler alert: I still like the over. Each of USC’s last nine games as favorites against ranked teams have hit the over. The Trojans are also a scorching 22-5 to the over after an ATS loss.

USC is 0-3 against the spread in its last three games despite being favored in every game this season. The Trojans are also just 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records.