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Posted on: March 3, 2026, 04:50h.
Last updated on: March 3, 2026, 04:50h.
- Mick Mulvaney launches coalition targeting prediction markets like Kalshi
- States and tribes push to regulate prediction markets as gambling
- CFTC oversight faces new challenge as political allies back markets
Ex-Trump chief of staff Mick Mulvaney is going after prediction markets. The former U.S. Rep. (R-S.C.) said Monday he was backing states and tribal governments in the ongoing fight over who gets to regulate platforms like Kalshi.
Mulvaney is heading a new advocacy coalition, launched Monday, titled “Gambling Is Not Investing,” which aims to lobby for prediction markets to be regulated under state gambling laws.
Prediction platforms are currently under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) because the contracts they offer, which pay out based on the outcomes of future events, are considered derivatives.
Trading, Gambling, What’s the Difference?
But to Mulvaney, who serves as the group’s executive director, they amount to “gambling,” pure and simple.
“Rebranding sports wagering as ‘trading’ or ‘investing’ or ‘predicting’ misleads consumers, undermines responsible gaming protections, and weakens the state and tribal systems built to protect the public and fund vital community services,” Mulvaney said in a statement Monday.
Gambling products, regardless of what you call them, must follow established state and tribal laws,” Mulvaney added.
Prediction markets argue that federal oversight shields them from state gambling laws. Meanwhile, numerous states and tribal coalitions, including Nevada, have sued, arguing the markets should fall under their oversight.
Friends in High Places
The plaintiffs may be hoping that Mulvaney’s status as a figure in the previous Trump administration – he served as acting White House chief of staff from 2019 to 2020 – will lend weight to their argument.
But prediction markets have the backing of key figures linked to the current administration – not least Donald Trump Jr., who sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and whose firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year.
Meanwhile, Trump-appointed CFTC chief Mike Selig is far more receptive to prediction markets than his predecessor, who sued Kalshi, claiming it had transformed itself into “an online casino” ahead of the last presidential election.
In contrast, Selig recently told states seeking to challenge CFTC oversight in the space: “Let me be clear: We will see you in court.”
That was in response to a group of Senate Democrats who last week urged the CFTC to refrain from weighing in on pending court cases about how prediction markets should be regulated, particularly in relation to events contracts on “sports, war, and other prohibited events.”
With lawsuits ongoing and regulators fiercely split, the debate over whether prediction markets are financial exchanges or just another form of gambling is far from over.
