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- Novak Djokovic is a -293 moneyline favorite over Lorenzo Musetti in quarterfinal action at the Australian Open
- Djokovic has more career titles at the Australian Open (10) than losses (8)
- See my Musetti vs Djokovic picks and predictions below, plus the latest betting odds for the Jan 27 matchup
World #4 Novak Djokovic is back in a familiar spot Down Under, trough to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open for a record 16th time. The ten-time Aussie Open champ will be back on Center Court tonight, taking on #5 Lorenzo Musetti.
Online sportsbooks don’t expect the Italian to provide too much resistance, pegging Djokovic as a -293 moneyline favorite. Djokovic has yet to be tested at this year’s tournament, but given Musetti’s current form, I’m betting this match to soar over the 38.5 game total.
The action is set to get underway at 10:30 pm ET, with live coverage available on ESPN2.
Here are my Musetti vs Djokovic picks and predictions, plus the latest betting odds for their matchup on January 27th (Wednesday, January 28th local time).
Musetti vs Djokovic Picks & Predictions
Let’s take a minute to marvel at Djokovic’s accomplishments at this tournament. He’s won 102 of 110 career matches, and has more titles (10) than defeats (8) in his Australian Open career. He’s still considered a sizeable underdog to Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in the Australian Open odds, but he’s flashed some tremendous form this year and has yet to drop a set through four rounds.
Furthermore, he earned a walkthrough in the Fourth Round, after Jakub Mensik was forced to withdraw. Djokovic lost only seven games total in each of his first two matches, and just 13 games in his Third Round triumph. He’s got a sparkling history against Musetti, but despite his dominance over the Italian, I’m expecting some push back from the fifth ranked player in the world.
That’s because Musetti is playing arguably the best tennis of his career. He’s through to the final eight for the third time in his last four Grand Slams, and he’s shed the label of not being a serious hardcourt player. It might not be his best surface, but he’s drastically improved his game on it. He made two finals last year on hardcourt, and has now made back-to-back Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances on the surface.
He’s fresh off waxing American and #9 seed Taylor Fritz in straight sets as an underdog, and has made major improvements to his service game, while upping his aggression.
His defense and return prowess were already top notch, and we’re going to be treated to numerous spectacular rallies between these two players, as neither one is going to take a single point off.
Musetti might not be able to pull off the outright upset, but as the younger, quicker player, he should be able to extend points and force Djokovic to work much harder than he’s had to in any of his previous matches.
Musetti vs Djokovic Last 5 H2H Results
I referenced the one-sided head-to-head history between these two, but it’s worth exploring a little further. Djokovic is 9-1 all-time against Musetti, winning each of the past six meetings. Musetti has been able to take at least one set off Djoker in nearly half of the matches though, including last time out on the Athens hardcourt.
That’s significant because Musetti was in the midst of a very successful fall hardcourt swing, and he carried that momentum over to Australia. If you’re tuning in tonight, be prepared for a lengthy battle, because there’s a good chance this match goes the distance.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Odds
Odds as of January 27th. Claim the BetMGM promo code before betting on the 2026 Australian Open.
The best place to bet over 38.5 games right now is FanDuel. They’re currently one of the few books still hanging that line, as most shops have moved the game total to 39.5.
Djokovic is currently favored by 4.5 games on the spread, while Musetti comes back as a +234 underdog. It’s worth noting that Djokovic hasn’t lost before the semifinal stage at the Aussie Open since 2018, and just twice since 2014.