NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets at Charlotte (May 24)

Charlotte routinely delivers one of the strangest races on the calendar. The event begins in daylight, transitions into darkness, and somewhere along the way crew chiefs begin treating fuel mileage calculations like ancient prophecy. Add looming rain into the equation, and Sunday night has all the ingredients necessary for complete insanity.

Naturally, that’s where things become interesting from a gambling perspective.

The NASCAR qualifying metric set the field this weekend, placing Tyler Reddick on pole position alongside Ty Gibbs on the front row. Behind them sits a dangerous mix of elite long-run cars, legitimate contenders, and several drivers fully capable of either winning the race or introducing themselves to the outside wall before Stage 1 concludes.

In other words, a fairly standard Coca-Cola 600.

Odds available at BetRivers as of May 24. Check out the best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday’s race at Charlotte.

NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

• Pick #1: Alex Bowman over Joey Logano (-110, BetRivers)

This matchup mostly comes down to one fairly important detail: Joey Logano and the entire Team Penske camp have looked absolutely lost on this track configuration.

Our model projects Alex Bowman for a 10.9 finish position compared to 16.97 for Logano, and the underlying data paints a similarly ugly picture for the No. 22 team.

On comparable tracks since the start of 2025, Bowman owns the edge nearly everywhere that matters. He averages 8.1 fast laps per race compared to just 2.4 for Logano, carries an average running position roughly 1.4 spots better, and has spent 11% more laps inside the top 15.

And frankly, Logano has been the weakest Penske car in this particular data set.

Sure, Bowman and the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports group still appear to be sorting through the mysteries of the new Chevrolet body configuration. But there’s a major difference between “slightly below expectation” and “driving like the setup sheet was translated through six different languages.”

At essentially even money, Bowman simply needs to beat a driver our model already dislikes significantly on this track type.

That’s a wager we’re happy to make.