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- How to fit multiple dominator candidates without sacrificing upside
- Hobby Lobby emptied my wallet. Hopefully this lineup helps refill it
- Race: Window World 450 | Green Flag: 7:14 p.m. ET | TV: TNT
I made the mistake of going into Hobby Lobby this week.
I wasn’t even shopping.
SpeedwayBrandi recently decided our kitchen theme should be cows, so naturally we “just needed to look.”
Forty-five minutes later, we walked out with a wooden cow that says “Farm Fresh,” a decorative milk can, two dish towels, a ceramic Highland cow wearing flowers, and somehow spent enough money that I briefly considered asking if they accepted trade-ins.
I have no idea how that happened.
Building a DraftKings lineup can feel the same way.
You start with Christopher Bell, and before you know it you’re trying to convince yourself that you can fit Kyle Larson too without accidentally filling the rest of your lineup with six drivers whose pre-race plan is simply “survive.”
Fortunately, our model found a few value plays that make the math work.
Window World 450 DFS Lineup
Christopher Bell ($10,200)
Our model projects Christopher Bell to win the Window World 450, making him the cornerstone of this lineup.
Bell was the fastest driver in Saturday’s practice, and the No. 20 Toyota has been one of the class of the field all weekend. His comparable-track profile backs it up as well, ranking near the top of the series in average running position, laps led, quality passes and top-15 percentage.
With 450 laps on the schedule, Bell offers as much dominator upside as anyone in the field. If he gets control of the race early, triple-digit laps led are firmly on the table.
William Byron ($9,900)
Our model projects Byron to finish 7.64 (fourth-best), making him another premium option worth paying for.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver continues to be one of the most consistent performers on comparable short tracks, combining an elite average running position with one of the highest top-15 percentages in the series. He also benefits from one of NASCAR’s best pit crews, an advantage that becomes even more valuable at North Wilkesboro.
Byron rarely has to be the fastest car to be one of the highest scorers in DFS.
He just quietly hangs around the front until everyone remembers he’s there.
Kyle Larson ($10,500)
Larson rounds out our expensive trio with an average projected finish of 9.35 (fifth-best).
His ceiling is obvious. Larson has been one of the strongest drivers on comparable tracks for several seasons, and Saturday’s practice showed the No. 5 Chevrolet has plenty of speed once again.
There are a lot of ways to build a lineup this week.
Leaving Kyle Larson off one of them isn’t one I’m especially interested in trying.
Alex Bowman ($7,000)
Bowman is one of my favorite salary-saving plays.
Our model projects him with the 14th best average projected finish (17.21), making him one of the strongest point-per-dollar values on the slate.
Bowman showed encouraging long-run speed during practice, carries a quality pit crew into Sunday night and owns a solid comparable-track profile. He doesn’t need to challenge for the win to return value at this salary.
Sometimes the best DFS value isn’t flashy.
It’s just the driver who quietly finishes where the model expects him to.
Connor Zilisch ($6,000)
Zilisch gives us another inexpensive driver our model believes can outperform his salary.
The rookie is projected to finish 25.88, giving him solid place differential upside while allowing us to fit Bell, Byron and Larson into the same lineup.
The talent has never been in question. As long as he keeps the fenders attached and avoids trouble, Zilisch has every opportunity to reward DFS players looking for value.
Riley Herbst ($5,800)
Herbst completes the lineup as our final value play.
Our model projects him to finish 25.26, which is more than enough to justify his modest salary.
At under $6,000, we’re not asking Herbst to compete for a top 10. We simply need a clean race, positive place differential and enough fantasy points to let the expensive stars do the heavy lifting.
Surviving is a viable fantasy strategy and this feels like one of those weeks.
Final Thoughts
This lineup starts with three drivers our model projects to finish inside the top-ten, giving us multiple opportunities to capture dominator points over 450 laps. Bowman, Zilisch and Herbst provide the salary relief without feeling like punts, with each projected to finish well ahead of where their DraftKings prices suggest.
If Bell controls the race up front while our value plays simply hit their projections, this lineup has everything it needs to contend in both cash games and tournaments.
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