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- Denny Hamlin seeks a third straight victory after winning the last two races from the rear of the field
- Can Chase Elliott overcome a 23rd-place starting spot and drive into the Top 10?
- Green flag for the Great American Getaway 400 is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET on Amazon Prime
At some point, NASCAR is going to have to stop letting Denny Hamlin do this. Two weeks ago at Nashville, Hamlin won after starting from the rear of the field. Last week at Michigan, he did it again. Most drivers spend all afternoon trying to gain track position. Hamlin has apparrntly decided that’s optional.
Now the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Pocono Raceway, where Hamlin will attempt to win a third consecutive race. This time, he’ll have to do it from the pole position.
Easy breezy, right?
The Tricky Triangle has a way of making things complicated, and Sunday’s race should be no exception. We woke up this morning to a still very slim betting board. But there’s enough posted to do damage.
We ride at dawn.
NASCAR Great American Getaway 400 Odds
Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +165, implying a win probability of 37.74%.
NASCAR Great American Getaway 400 Predictions
Chase Elliott over Christopher Bell (-114, BetRivers)
We highlighted Chase Elliott in our DFS article as one of the strongest drivers capable of moving forward through the field. We have even more interest in Elliott in this matchup against Christopher Bell.
Last weekend at Michigan, these two drivers got together when Elliott got loose underneath Bell and sent the No. 20 car head-on into the outside wall. Both drivers were eliminated from the race, but Bell paid a much steeper price.
The impact was measured at nearly 63 Gs. According to multiple reports, it was the hardest crash of the Next Gen era and the most violent impact recorded in the NASCAR Cup Series since 2015. Bell climbed from the wreckage with a fractured wrist and spent the week trying to convince doctors, NASCAR officials, and probably himself that he was ready to race at Pocono.
Our model isn’t nearly as optimistic.
Elliott carries a projected finishing position of 6.31 compared to 9.22 for Bell. Neither driver showed much speed in practice, with Bell qualifying 22nd and Elliott 23rd, but this matchup isn’t about who looked faster on Saturday.
It’s about who is in better shape on Sunday.
This is almost like pricing Steve and me at a pick’em in a bowling match the week after I had wrist surgery. Sure, I could show up. I could put my name on the scoresheet. I might even throw a decent first game. But at some point, reality tends to enter the conversation.
Bell is expected to start the race, but Brandon Jones is standing by as a relief driver if needed. Should Jones end up behind the wheel, Bell would still be graded as the driver of record for matchup purposes since he took the green flag.
We’ll gladly side with the healthier driver, the stronger projection, and the possibility that a 160-lap afternoon around Pocono is a lot tougher than simply surviving a medical evaluation.
Chase Elliott Top-10 Finish (-110, TheScore Bet)
If we’re projecting Elliott to finish 6.31 on average, it only makes sense to have some interest in the Top-10 market as well.
Starting 23rd isn’t ideal, but it does create opportunity. Pocono rewards patience, strategy, and long-run speed, and our model expects Elliott to spend most of the afternoon moving forward rather than hanging around the edge of the Top 10.
The sportsbooks are asking Elliott to do something our model already expects him to do.
At -110, we’ll gladly take the discount.
Kyle Larson over Denny Hamlin (+170, bet365)
This one isn’t for the faint of heart.
Denny Hamlin won the pole position and will be looking for a third consecutive victory after winning each of the last two races from the rear of the field. Larson will start right alongside him on the front row.
Our model actually projects Hamlin to finish ahead of Larson more often than not. Hamlin carries a projected finishing position of 3.00 compared to 4.22 for Larson.
That’s exactly why we’re interested.
At +170, Larson is being priced as though he wins this matchup just 37.04% of the time. On the other side of the wager, Hamlin’s -240 price implies a win probability of 70.59%.
Our model disagrees. We have Hamlin winning the matchup 52.44% of the time, which means Larson wins it 47.56% of the time.
That’s a massive gap between our projections and the market’s expectations.
To be perfectly clear, we’re probably losing this bet.
Just not often enough to pass on the number.
Larson’s practice data graded slightly better than Hamlin’s, and while Hamlin deserves every bit of respect he’s receiving from oddsmakers, the market has reached a point where perfection is being priced in.
Hamlin has been a rocket ship over the last few weeks. Everything has gone right. Strategy calls have worked. Speed has been there. The finishes have followed. The man is operating like it’s a video game with the difficulty sliders turned all the way down.
Meanwhile, Larson has quietly been improving, and so have the Chevrolets. Teams are beginning to get a better handle on the aerodynamic quirks of NASCAR’s updated body configuration, and Hendrick Motorsports has steadily moved back toward the front of the field.
Eventually, everything stops going perfectly.
This is NASCAR racing, after all.
At +170, we’re willing to bet that happens often enough to make Larson the value side of this matchup.
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