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- The biggest model vs. sportsbook discrepancies this week.
- SpeedwayBrandi’s Play of the Week is back.
- Read below for NASCAR Quaker State 400 predictions, best bets and sleeper picks at EchoPark.
I turn 40 on Sunday.
Apparently that means I’m supposed to have hobbies like smoking brisket for 14 hours, debating the best grass seed and telling everyone, “They just don’t make them like they used to.”
At this point, my birthday wishes have gotten pretty practical.
Twenty years ago I wanted a PlayStation.
Today, I’d be thrilled if someone paid my property taxes.
If that’s a little too generous, don’t worry. I’d still be perfectly happy with a giant LEGO set.
Maybe I’m not as grown up as I’m supposed to be.
Fortunately, Atlanta still gives us a chance to make a little money instead. Green flag drops Sunday at 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
NASCAR Quaker State 400 Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at EchoPark Speedway. New to prediction markets? Lock in our Kalshi referral code, and see how the top prediction markets price the Quaker State 400.
NASCAR Quaker State 400 Predictions & Best Bets
Joey Logano Top-10 Finish (-134 at BetRivers)
If there’s one driver we trust to put himself in position on a superspeedway, it’s Joey Logano.
Our model projects Logano to finish 7.2, the best mark in the field, and he enters the weekend ranked No. 1 overall despite opening behind Ryan Blaney on the outright board.
The superspeedway numbers explain why.
Across the last nine races at Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega, Logano owns a series-best 13.36 average running position, has led 33.4 laps per race and spent an incredible 74.5% of his laps inside the top 15. He’s also led laps in every drafting-track race this season, including Atlanta earlier this year.
Superspeedways are chaotic, but Logano has made a career out of avoiding that chaos until it matters most. We don’t need him to win. We just need him to do what he almost always does: race near the front all afternoon.
Kyle Larson Top-10 Finish (-134 at BetRivers)
There was a time when superspeedways were an automatic fade for Kyle Larson.
Those days are over.
Larson has quietly become one of the strongest drafting-track racers in the series, and our model reflects it. He owns the No. 1 superspeedway power rating this week and projects to finish 9.1, second only to Logano.
The recent speed has been impossible to ignore. Larson has led laps in six of the last nine superspeedway races, including Atlanta earlier this season, while posting a 16.08 average running position over that stretch.
The No. 5 team has figured these races out, and asking Larson to simply finish inside the top 10 feels like a very reasonable expectation.
SpeedwayBrandi Play of the Week
Kyle Larson over Ryan Blaney (+145 at bet365)
Whenever SpeedwayBrandi signs off on a matchup, we pay attention.
This one comes down to value.
Blaney deserves to be one of the favorites on drafting tracks, but the market has overcorrected. He’s the betting favorite this week despite our model projecting him to finish 11.1, while Larson checks in at 9.1.
Larson also owns the top superspeedway power rating entering Atlanta, compared to Blaney’s second-place mark.
These two are much closer than the odds suggest, and getting the driver our model prefers at plus money is an easy decision.
NASCAR Quaker State 400 Sleeper Picks at EchoPark
Ryan Preece (+4500)
If you’re looking for the biggest pricing mistake on the outright board, start with Ryan Preece.
Sportsbooks rank him 20th to win the race.
Our model ranks him 11th.
That’s a nine-position gap, one of the largest positive differences in the entire field.
Preece has become one of the more underrated superspeedway racers in NASCAR, posting a 15.77 average running position across the last nine drafting-track races while consistently racing near the front. He also ranks sixth in comparable-track average running position and projects to finish 14.0 this week.
At 45-1, we’ll gladly take our chances.
John Hunter Nemechek (+6600)
John Hunter Nemechek isn’t a household name on superspeedways, but that’s exactly why this price is interesting.
Our model projects him to finish 21st, yet the sportsbooks rank him just 29th on the outright board. That eight-position edge makes him one of the better longshot values available.
There’s another reason we like the number.
Toyota owns the strongest manufacturer rating in our superspeedway model this week, and Nemechek gives us exposure to that strength at 66-1. If the Toyotas work together and this race turns into the typical Atlanta survival test, he’s capable of dramatically outperforming expectations.
We’re not expecting him to dominate.
We’re simply asking for a ticket with more upside than the odds imply, and this one fits the bill.
Additional Leans
Joey Logano to Win, Kyle Larson to Win.
Want more ways to bet Atlanta? Grab the latest BetMGM promo code ahead of Sunday’s Quaker State 400.