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- Ty Gibbs starts from the pole, but our favorite bets are elsewhere
- Our model disagrees with the sportsbooks on three H2H matchups
- See our top NASCAR Toyota/SaveMart 350 picks and predictions
Some mornings the betting board practically writes the article for you.
This isn’t one of those mornings.
There just aren’t many numbers worth attacking, so we’re not going to force action for the sake of having more action. We’ll fire at the spots we like and call it a day. After all, I have bigger problems than a light betting board.
In a few hours I’ll be at Dollywood, where four children have unanimously agreed that every roller coaster is better from the front row.
I’m apparently the only one who disagrees.
Let’s make a little money before my courage gets put to the test.
NASCAR Toyota/SaveMart 350 Odds
Odds available as of 8:22 am ET on June 28.
Shane Van Gisbergen is the favorite at -165, implying a 62.26% chance of winning the Toyota/Save Mart 350.
Nascar Toyota/SaveMart Predictions
Zane Smith over Carson Hocevar (+450, DraftKings)
This price is simply too big.
Our model projects Hocevar to finish 15.60 on average compared to 21.49 for Zane Smith, so there’s no denying who deserves to be favored. The problem is the market has taken that idea to the extreme.
At +450, DraftKings is implying Zane wins this matchup just 18.18% of the time.
Our model has him winning 38.43% of the simulations.
That’s still an underdog. It’s just nowhere near this much of an underdog.
The road-course numbers help explain why. Zane is coming off a fourth-place finish in San Diego, ranks 17th in road-course fast laps, and finished 16th in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric this weekend. None of those numbers make him the favorite over Hocevar.
They also don’t suggest he should be a +450 underdog.
We’re not betting on Zane because we think he’s the better driver.
We’re betting because this number dramatically undervalues his chances.
Bubba Wallace over Michael McDowell (+330, DraftKings)
This is another spot where we’re betting the number instead of pretending the favorite shouldn’t be favored.
McDowell is one of the premier road racers in the Cup Series, and our model agrees. He’s projected to finish 10.45 on average compared to 16.11 for Bubba Wallace.
Even so, the market has drifted a little too far.
DraftKings is pricing Bubba as though he wins this matchup only 23.26% of the time. Our model lands much closer to 38.90%.
That’s a significant difference for a matchup between two drivers capable of running inside the top 15.
Bubba also flashed legitimate speed this weekend, finishing inside the top dozen in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric. Add in last week’s runner-up finish in San Diego, and there’s enough evidence to believe the No. 23 team is capable of outperforming this price.
McDowell deserves to be favored.
He just doesn’t deserve to be this big of a favorite.
Todd Gilliland over Daniel Suarez (+400, DraftKings)
This is the biggest swing of the morning.
Suarez is projected to finish 15.75 on average compared to 25.93 for Gilliland, so on paper this one looks ugly.
That’s exactly why we’re getting +400.
The odds imply Gilliland wins this matchup just 20.00% of the time, while our model gives him 30.70%.
Is he likely to lose?
Absolutely.
Does he lose often enough to justify a +400 price?
We don’t think so.
Gilliland wasn’t flashy in practice, but neither was Suarez. Suarez ranked 18th in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric, while Gilliland checked in 22nd. That’s a much smaller gap than these odds suggest, and it’s one of the reasons our model believes this matchup is closer than the market indicates.
Sometimes betting isn’t about picking the better driver.
It’s about recognizing when the sportsbook has pushed a number beyond where it should be.