New prediction market entrant Pascal closes $9 million Series A

New York-based prediction market startup Pascal has closed a $9 million Series A funding round led by Union Square Ventures.

The raise builds on a $6 million seed round the firm closed last August with backing from Wintermute Ventures and DBA.

Pascal enters a sector dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket, whose valuations put the industry’s two largest platforms at a combined figure north of $37 billion.  

Kalshi, a CFTC-cleared exchange focused primarily on US retail users, carries a valuation of roughly $22 billion and is reportedly in talks to raise new funding that could roughly double that number. Polymarket, which built its user base on blockchain-based contracts and a global, crypto-savvy audience, is valued at $15 billion.

Rather than compete directly with either platform, Pascal is positioning itself around institutional-grade infrastructure and trading mechanics aimed at professional traders rather than retail bettors.

Perpetual futures structure applied to event contracts

Pascal’s core product layers perpetual futures-style mechanics onto event contracts. Where a standard yes/no contract expires once an event resolves, Pascal’s structure allows traders to hold positions that function closer to the perpetual contracts common on crypto derivatives exchanges.

The company says the model is paired with lower trading fees and tools designed to reduce “phantom fills,” instances in which trades appear to execute but never settle.

“I would love to see a world where there are liquid markets for the types of risks that real businesses face and are interested in hedging,” Cofounder Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen told Fortune.

Pascal takes its name from 17th-century mathematician Blaise Pascal, whose work on probability theory informed modern approaches to decision-making under uncertainty.

Founders’ trading pedigree

Crnkovic-Rubsamen and Matthew Downey met through institutional trading work before launching Pascal. Crnkovic-Rubsamen spent years as a quantitative trader at Bridgewater Associates and D.E. before serving as CEO of crypto derivatives exchange dYdX starting in 2024.

Downey brings a background in high-frequency crypto trading. The pair say their experience with existing prediction market platforms’ shortcomings drove them to build tools tailored to serious traders.

The platform entered private beta in June and remains there, with the company declining to disclose current trading volumes.

Regulatory questions loom

Prediction markets have expanded rapidly over the past year, with advertising visible at events including World Cup matches and in New York City’s subway system. The category gained regulatory traction after Kalshi secured Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval in 2020, and platforms rose to broader prominence during the 2024 presidential election.

That growth has drawn scrutiny. Multiple US states are examining whether event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling, and several lawsuits are pending against existing platforms over whether prediction markets should fall under federal oversight or be regulated on a state-by-state basis.

Analysts point to three developments worth tracking: whether Pascal obtains regulatory approvals or no-action letters that would set it apart on compliance, how quickly the platform attracts market makers capable of supplying institutional-level liquidity, and whether its perpetual futures mechanic produces sustained trading volume once it moves beyond private beta.