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Nearly one in every five pounds wagered online in the UK could be placed with illegal gambling operators by 2028, according to new projections from H2 Gambling Capital.
The research forecasts that black-market operators will account for 19.2% of all online betting and gaming stakes within three years. Total stakes placed with illegal operators are expected to rise from £17 billion ($22.78 billion) in 2025 to more than £33 billion ($44.22 billion) by 2028.
The figures were released ahead of a May 21 meeting of the Gambling Commission board, where proposals related to financial risk assessments (FRAs) are scheduled for consideration.
The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) said the forecasts point to continued growth in the illegal gambling sector, which operates outside UK regulations, pays no taxes, and is not subject to the safer gambling requirements imposed on licensed operators.
“These forecasts are a wake-up call. The black market is not a distant threat; it is growing fast, becoming more visible, and attracting billions of pounds in stakes from British customers,” said Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of BGC.
“By 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators. These sites pay no UK tax, support no British jobs, and offer none of the protections that exist in the regulated sector.
The organization also cited concerns that higher taxes, financial checks, and additional regulatory requirements could encourage some customers to move from licensed operators to unregulated websites.
“The lesson for policymakers is clear. If the regulated market is made less competitive through higher taxes or intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting; they will simply move to the black market,” Hurst warned.
“As the Gambling Commission considers financial risk assessments, it is vital that any checks are genuinely frictionless and targeted. Any policy that unintentionally drives even more customers towards illegal operators will undermine player safety and damage the regulated sector.
Hurst further cautioned ministers and regulators to avoid measures “that hand an advantage to the black market.”
According to the BGC, the regulated betting and gaming sector supports 109,000 jobs across the UK, contributes £6.8 billion ($9.11 billion) to the economy, and generates £4 billion ($5.36 billion) in annual tax revenue.