New study finds prediction markets bringing first-time users into crypto

Prediction markets are drawing new users into cryptocurrency, according to research from Bitget Wallet, which found that 60% of active traders on Polymarket had never used blockchain protocols before placing event-based trades.

The study examined the on-chain activity of 857,000 active Polymarket users over a 90-day period. Researchers found that many participants entered the crypto ecosystem through prediction markets instead of first buying digital assets or using decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.

“Prediction markets are increasingly functioning as an entry point into crypto rather than a niche trading category, with users now entering onchain activity directly through application-level interfaces instead of decentralized exchanges or decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols,” Bitget Wallet said.

Sports events drive prediction market activity

Trading activity accelerated after the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on June 11. According to Dune, executed volume on prediction markets reached $713 million on Saturday, the first time that level had been recorded. The figure represents contracts bought or sold through existing orders.

Interest in World Cup markets has translated into substantial trading volume on Polymarket. Data from the platform show that the contract for the FIFA World Cup winner has generated more than $3.1 billion in trading volume.

Earlier projections from Bernstein suggested the tournament could contribute more than $3 billion to the sports betting market while adding another $5 billion to $10 billion in user volume across prediction markets. Current trading activity indicates those estimates are beginning to materialize.

Over the past 30 days, sports contracts accounted for the largest share of activity on major prediction market platforms. Kalshi recorded more than $8.5 billion in sports-related trading volume, making it the platform’s largest segment. Polymarket generated more than $4.9 billion in sports trading volume during the same period, according to Defirate.

New path into blockchain

The research suggests prediction markets are reducing barriers for users who have limited experience with blockchain technology.

According to Bitget Wallet, surveyed users recorded nearly 1,200 prediction market interactions during the 90-day period, compared with about 12 trades on standard decentralized exchanges (DEX) over the same timeframe.

The report also arrived alongside separate reports that Polymarket surpassed $1 billion in annualized revenue. The platform operates on the Polygon network, although data indicate that much of its liquidity comes from Ethereum-based chains.

Bitget Wallet COO Elvin Kan said previous efforts to bring new users into crypto focused on simplifying wallets and improving interfaces, but those changes still required users to understand blockchain technology.

“Prediction markets have completely changed this approach. People come not because of cryptocurrencies, but because they want to make a prediction on an event they are interested in,” Kan said.

Bitget Wallet also concluded: “This suggests prediction markets are not simply a new crypto trading vertical, but an application-led onboarding mechanism, where users begin with real-world questions and only later interact with underlying financial infrastructure.”

“As a result, prediction markets appear to be evolving into one of the first scalable consumer onboarding layers for crypto, where blockchain infrastructure becomes increasingly invisible and user interaction is defined by real-world outcomes rather than financial primitives,” the company added.

The expansion of sports-related prediction markets has also drawn regulatory attention in the United States. Several state-level gambling regulators say prediction market operators conduct sports betting services without the required licenses.

Legal actions against prediction market operators have been filed in at least 17 states.