NFL Draft Odds – Over/Under 1.5 QBs in First Round

• Over 1.5 QBs to be drafted in the First Round of Thursday’s NFL Draft is a -150 favorite
• With Fernando Mendoza set to be selected first, making the bet hinge on whether or not Ty Simpson is picked in the top-32
• Keep reading for the odds and best bets for Over/Under 1.5 QBs in the First Round

Is Ty Simpson really a First Round NFL Draft pick? Your eyes might say no, but the market is currently saying yes. Simpson is currently a -320 favorite to taken in the first 32 picks, and is the key to the question will there be over or under 1.5 QB’s taken in the First Round?

That bet is currently drawing a ton of action at online sportsbooks, so keep reading to see the latest odds and my best bets in this NFL Draft market.

Over/Under 1.5 QBs in First Round Odds

Odds as of April 22 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on the NFL Draft.

As of Wednesday afternoon, over 1.5 QB’s taken in the First Round is priced at -150, with the under coming back at +150 at BetMGM. The sportsbooks is currently reporting that 57% of the tickets are on the under, but a whopping 80% of the money is on the over. That’s a good indication that professional money is backing over 1.5, and it’s never a terrible idea to be on the same side as the sharps.

Over/Under 1.5 QBs in First Round Best Bets

• Over 1.5 QBs in First Round (-150 at BetMGM)

There are a few reasons to believe Simpson will go in the first 32 picks in the NFL Draft odds, but few have anything to do with his play on the field.

Simpson has told anyone who will listen that he’ll be in the Green Room in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, so there is an excellent chance one or multiple teams have told him he’ll be their guy if he’s available. The Alabama product is a sizeable -270 favorite to go over his 24.5 position draft prop, and given the teams picking between 25 and 30, the most likely scenario is that someone might trade back into the First Round to snatch him.

Ty Simpson Draft Position

QB desperate teams like Arizona and the Jets make the most sense, and with New York holding multiple First round picks, they could easily trade down if they don’t see anything they like at pick 16. There’s also been some buzz that the Rams are enamoured with Simpson, but given they pick at 13, they’d likely try to either trade back from that spot or sneak back into the opening round late.

The big reason why it’s advantageous to take a QB in the First Round is the 5th year of eligibility teams get on their rookie contract. That gives them ultimate cap flexibility for one extra year, but how often have these Late First Round quarterbacks actually panned out?

Let’s throw out the 2025 Draft since the jury is still out on Jaxon Dart. Between 2009 and 2024, 11 QB’s were drafted in the back half of the First Round. Of those 11, only Jordan Love has been a multi-year starter, and only 5 of the 11 even got a second NFL contract.

Ty Simpson to be Drafted in First Round

To be fair to Simpson, he is a much better prospect than names like Dwayne Haskins, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel and Brandon Weeded to name just a few. He was a 2025 Manning Award Finalist for the nation’s top QB, and has excellent footwork and processing abilities.

He’s also a good athlete who moves well outside the pocket, but his size, limited arm strength and lack of significant playing time (15 college games) are definite concerns.

Nevertheless, there are only a small group of humans on the planet that are capable of playing the quarterback position at the NFL level. Our final NFL Mock Draft predicts he’ll be selected on Thursday, and Simpson has a good foundation of tools to work with and improve on. At least one team won’t be able to help themselves from picking in him in the First Round helping us cash our bet.