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- Top-ranked Ohio State visits #17 Illinois as 14-point road favorites
- The Buckeyes defense has allowed just 25 total points all season
- See below for my Ohio State vs Illinois prediction, props to target and H2H history
The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes put their perfect record on the line Saturday when they visit #17 Illinois in a Big Ten showdown. The Buckeyes haven’t allowed double digits in any game this season. Online sportsbooks expect that dominance to continue, with the college football odds favoring Ohio State by two touchdowns on the road.
Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00am CT from Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.
Ohio State vs Illinois Prediction
Illinois enters as one of the best ATS teams in the country at 5-1. They’ve covered five straight at home and are 6-0 ATS after scoring 40+ points in their previous game. But this Ohio State defense is something different entirely.
The numbers are staggering. Ohio State allows 5 points per game and hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown all season. That’s 172 consecutive opponent carries without one, easily leading the nation. They’ve held opponents to 25 total points through five games, matching historic defenses from Georgia (2021) and Florida State (1993).
Ryan Day’s squad hasn’t allowed a red zone touchdown in nine straight opponent drives dating back to last season. That’s the longest such streak by any Big Ten team since Michigan’s defense had a nine-drive streak in 2023. Simply put, teams can’t score on these Buckeyes.
OSU vs Illinois Key Stats
Julian Sayin runs the Ohio State offense with ruthless efficiency. The quarterback completes 80.2% of his passes with a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s the only FBS quarterback at 80% or better through his first five career starts while going 5-0. His deep ball has been lethal too, going 12-for-14 on passes of 20+ air yards for 515 yards and seven touchdowns.
Illinois counters with Luke Altmyer, who brings his own impressive resume. He hasn’t thrown a pick in 156 pass attempts, the third-longest active streak in FBS. Altmyer completes 73.6% of his passes with 12 touchdowns to one interception. The problem is he’ll face the nation’s top scoring defense that’s been particularly stingy in the fourth quarter, allowing just 1.4 points per final frame.
The key matchup centers on Illinois’ vulnerable pass defense against Ohio State’s elite receivers. The Illini secondary ranks 113th nationally, allowing 252.3 yards per game and letting quarterbacks complete 63.9% of their passes.
Against Jeremiah Smith, who’s caught a touchdown in four straight games and has 1,778 receiving yards through his sophomore season, that spells trouble. Only three Big Ten players since 2000 have more receiving yards through their sophomore year than Smith.
Illinois does have one advantage: their rushing attack in the fourth quarter. Kaden Feagin leads the way with 156 fourth-quarter rushing yards, third-most in the Big Ten. The Illini have compiled 397 rushing yards in the final frame this season, third-most in FBS. If they can keep it close, their ability to close games on the ground could matter.
Ohio State vs Illinois Props to Bet
Sayin has 12 touchdown passes in his last four games and faces a defense that’s been torched through the air. Illinois lets quarterbacks complete nearly 64% of their passes and ranks near the bottom in pass defense.
With elite weapons like Smith and Carnell Tate, who had nine catches for 183 yards last week, Sayin should hit this number comfortably.
The freshman back has 360 yards through four games, good for 90 per contest. That’s the most by a Buckeye through their first four career games since TreVeyon Henderson had 432 in 2021.
Illinois surrenders 4.2 yards per carry and has given up 150+ rushing yards in three straight games. Jackson should feast, especially if Ohio State builds a lead and wants to control clock.
Donaldson brings 34 career rushing touchdowns into this game, second-most among active FBS players behind only Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton (37). He’s found the end zone five times this year, including three times in the last two weeks.
He’s scored in four of five games this season. Great value at plus money against a defense allowing 24 points per game.
Latest Ohio State vs Illinois Odds
This line opened at Ohio State -13.5 before sharp action pushed it past the key number of 14. Some books are offering alternate lines with Ohio State -13.5 at increased juice for those wanting to avoid the key number. The total has held firm at 49.5, with the market respecting Ohio State’s historic defense.
Illinois backers can point to several favorable trends. The under is 6-1 in the Illini’s last seven games after scoring 40+ points previously. The under is also 6-1 in Illinois’ last seven after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous contest. Meanwhile, the over has hit in six straight Illinois conference games, creating conflicting signals for total bettors.
Odds as of October 11. Check out the latest Caesars Sportsbook bonus code before betting on Week 7 college football.
Per the college football public betting trends, Ohio State is 7-0 ATS against winning teams and 5-0 ATS after gaining 450+ yards. They’re also 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against teams with winning home records. Illinois counters with a 5-0 ATS mark in their last five home games.
Ohio State vs Illinois H2H History
This series has been all Ohio State lately. The Buckeyes have won nine straight meetings, outscoring Illinois by an average of 30 points during that stretch. The Illini’s last victory came in 2007 when they upset #1 Ohio State 28-21 in Columbus. Their last home win against the Buckeyes came way back in 1991.
Recent Meetings
Recent history shows complete domination. In 2017, Ohio State demolished Illinois 52-14, racking up 543 total yards to Illinois’ 105. The Buckeyes put up 325 rushing yards and 218 passing yards that day, with Illinois managing just 89 rushing yards and 16 passing yards. Despite the blowout, Illinois covered the massive 41-point spread.
Here’s the interesting wrinkle: When both teams are ranked, Illinois has historically thrived. The Illini have won four of five ranked matchups since 1965, including victories in 1983 (17-13), 1990 (31-20), 1991 (10-7), and 2001 (34-22). This marks just the fifth time in 60 years both teams enter ranked.
Illinois is also 3-13 all-time against AP #1 teams, with two of those three wins coming against Ohio State (1950 and 2007). The third came against Michigan State in 1956. History suggests the underdog knows how to rise to the occasion in these massive spots.
Final Ohio State Illinois Prediction
Illinois deserves credit for their 5-1 start and excellent ATS record. Bret Bielema has built a tough, physical team that’s improved its scoring offense for five straight years. They’ve scored 52 points off turnovers this season, second-most in FBS, and have won 10 straight when winning the turnover battle.
The Illini will compete early with their home crowd behind them. Hank Beatty, who ranks fifth nationally with 764 all-purpose yards, could break a big play or two. Their ability to run the ball late, with 397 fourth-quarter rushing yards this season, keeps them in games.
But once Ohio State settles in, the talent gap becomes insurmountable. The Buckeyes have scored 40+ points in 43 games since 2019, second-most in FBS. They’ve been ranked in the AP Top 10 for 84 of Ryan Day’s 85 games as head coach, the highest percentage in the poll era.
Day has reached 75 wins faster than any coach in Big Ten history. He gets number 76 here in convincing fashion. My prediction is Ohio State wins 35-17 and covers the spread.
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