Ohio State vs Illinois Preview, Prediction & Betting Trends for Week 7 Big Ten Matchup

As impressive as that sounds consider the following. This is a defense that lost eight players to the NFL after last season. Teams have been unable to sustain drives against them, and are converting only 20.3% of their third down opportunities. Over the last two weeks alone, Minnesota and Washington were 2-for-21 on third down against Ohio State. Their average length to convert was over 8 yards, and those teams averaged a pathetic 1.6 yards per play on those attempts.

Ohio State Defensive Stats

The Buckeyes defense is full of athletic freaks, that are a perfect combination of size and speed. They rank third in sack percentage, and second in yards per play, yielding just 2.9 yards per rush and 5.5 yards per throw.

That’s trouble for the Fighting Illini despite the presence of veteran QB Luke Altmyer. Illinois has converted just 14-of-43 third down attempts versus Power 4 schools so far, and were 3-for-21 combined on third down against #9 Indiana and Purdue.

Not surprisingly, they were blown out by the Hoosiers, the lone top-20 team they’ve played so far. Altmyer was especially bad in that contest, throwing for a season-low 146 yards and absorbing 7 sacks.

On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes should find plenty of success versus a Fighting Illini defense that ranks outside the top-80 in scoring defense and yards allowed per play. Illinois has been especially bad against the run, and Ohio State should be content to run the ball down their throat to salt away this game.

Oho State vs Illinois Prediction

That’s not to say Julian Sayin can’t have success through the air as well. Saying has just 25 incompletions all season and is completing an FBS-high 80.2% of his throws. The Buckeyes tend to lean run heavy however, and their offensive line has been cooking lately.

Against Washington they created 2.0 yards before contact on their rush attempts. Last week, it was 1.13 yards before contact against Minnesota, but that was significantly more than the Golden Gophers had been yielding all season. Ohio State rushed for more yards per carry than any other Minnesota opponent in a year.

The recipe for the under in my Ohio State vs Illinois prediction is simple. Continue to run the ball efficiently, and play lights out defense like you have been all season. I don’t believe the Fighting Illini can punch back in this spot, meaning the Buckeyes could get to 35+ points and this contest could still easily fall short of the 50.5 point total.

Ohio State vs Illinois Odds

The best sportsbook to bet the under as of Wednesday is BetMGM. Their over/under is a full point higher than most of the other books, after the total opened at 48.5. Ohio State is currently favored by 14.5 points and -650 on the moneyline, while Illinois comes back as a +470 underdog.

Odds as of Oct. 8 at BetMGM. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on college football.

Ohio State vs Illinois Betting Trends

Per the college football public betting trends, the under is 3-2 in Buckeyes games so far this season. It’s hit both times against top-30 opponents, and was on its way to hitting last week against the Golden Gophers until a fourth quarter Ohio State explosion.