O’Malley vs. Zahabi Prediction, Odds & Pick for UFC Freedom 250

• Sean O’Malley faces Aiemann Zahabi in a bantamweight clash at UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14th
• O’Malley is a heavy favorite on the South Lawn of the White House, with Zahabi the live underdog
• See my O’Malley vs. Zahabi prediction, odds and best pick below

Sean O’Malley wants his belt back, and the road runs through Aiemann Zahabi first. The two bantamweights square off at UFC Freedom 250 this Sunday on the South Lawn of the White House, with a likely title shot waiting on the other side.

O’Malley is coming off a clear decision win over Song Yadong that snapped his two-fight slide against Merab Dvalishvili. Zahabi has quietly stacked up a seven-fight win streak and earned this spot, but he’s walking into the toughest test of his career.

Here’s my O’Malley vs. Zahabi prediction and where I’d put my money.

O’Malley vs. Zahabi Prediction

O’Malley is the bigger, longer, faster striker, and that combination is a tough problem for a fighter who needs to get inside to do damage. Suga stands 5’11” with a four-inch reach edge, and he picks opponents apart from range as well as anyone at 135 pounds.

Zahabi is tough and disciplined, but his win streak came largely against opponents he could out-point rather than overwhelm. He’s been dropped a couple of times recently, and that’s a scary trait to carry into a fight with one of the division’s cleanest counter strikers.

The other problem for Zahabi is tempo. He likes a measured, low-output fight where he reads his opponent and fires back in short bursts. O’Malley is happy to fight at that pace too, and he wins those rounds by landing the cleaner, more eye-catching shots that sway judges. If this turns into a patient striking match, that style war favors Suga.

The catch is that Zahabi doesn’t get finished easily, and O’Malley hasn’t been a big finisher lately. Suga has leaned on his jab and volume to win rounds rather than hunt the knockout. That points this fight toward the scorecards, which is how I see it playing out.

O’Malley should control the range for 15 minutes and take a comfortable decision. At -500 on the moneyline, the straight bet is a waste, so the method of victory is the smarter play. O’Malley by decision at -105 gives you near even money on the most likely result, and it sidesteps the juice you’d pay just to back him to win outright.

• O’Malley vs. Zahabi Pick: Sean O’Malley by Decision (-105 at BetMGM)

O’Malley vs. Zahabi Odds

O’Malley sits at -500, an implied probability of about 83.3%. Zahabi comes back at +375, or roughly 21%. The over 2.5 rounds is favored heavily, which lines up with the read that Suga takes his time and wins on the cards rather than chasing an early finish.

Odds as of June 14th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Browse our top recommended UFC betting apps for Sunday’s White House event.

Tale of the Tape

The reach and youth both favor O’Malley, and that’s really the matchup. Zahabi has to find a way inside without eating clean counters, and few fighters at bantamweight make that harder than Suga. Add in O’Malley’s double KO-win edge, and the finishing threat tilts his way too if Zahabi gets reckless trying to close the gap.

How to Watch O’Malley vs. Zahabi

UFC Freedom 250 streams on Paramount+ in the United States, with no separate pay-per-view charge. The card starts at 8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT, and O’Malley and Zahabi are slated to walk around 10:20 pm ET / 7:20 pm PT, though that depends on how the earlier fights play out.

For my reads on the rest of the lineup, check out the early UFC Freedom 250 odds and predictions.