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- USA vs Canada opening odds are out for Sunday’s men’s Olympic hockey gold medal game
- Canada is a slight moneyline favorite, with puck drop set for 8:10 AM ET
- See below for USA vs Canada gold medal odds, head-to-head history, and projected line movement
The gold medal game every hockey fan has been waiting 12 years for is finally here. The United States and Canada will meet for men’s Olympic gold on Sunday, February 22, at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. This is the first time these rivals have played for gold with NHL players since Sidney Crosby’s iconic overtime winner in Vancouver back in 2010.
FanDuel didn’t wait long to post odds, releasing the opening line during the second period of the USA’s 5-0 blowout of Slovakia in the semifinal. Canada opened as a small favorite, with the Americans as underdogs.
Puck drop is 8:10 AM ET on Sunday, with NBC and Peacock carrying the broadcast in the United States and CBC in Canada.
USA vs Canada Odds – Olympic Gold Medal Game
USA vs Canada Gold Medal Odds Breakdown
This is about as close to a coin flip as you’ll see in a gold medal game. Canada’s -118 moneyline carries roughly a 54% implied win probability, while the USA at -102 sits right around 50%. The puck line is set at 1.5 goals with Canada -1.5 at +194, and the total is 5.5 with the under heavily juiced at -162.
That under price jumps off the page. Oddsmakers clearly expect a tight, low-scoring game, and it’s hard to argue given what both goaltenders have done in this tournament.
excelled, scoring 13 points (2G, 11A) in five games, breakingOdds as of Feb. 20 at FanDuel. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on the gold medal game.
How Team USA Reached the Gold Medal Game
The Americans put an exclamation point on their semifinal, rolling Slovakia 5-0 behind goals from Dylan Larkin, Tage Thompson, Jack Hughes, and Jack Eichel. Hughes and Eichel scored 19 seconds apart in the second period to blow it open. The USA is 5-0 with a 23-5 goal differential and looked their best when it mattered most.
Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goaltender in the tournament. His .957 save percentage and 0.98 GAA are both tops among starters, and the penalty kill has been perfect through the entire Olympics at 14-for-14.
Quinn Hughes has 6 points (1G, 5A) including the overtime winner against Sweden in the quarters. Auston Matthews has 3 goals and 3 assists as captain.
Canada’s Run to the Final
Canada has been the most talented team from top to bottom, going 5-0 with a 27-8 goal differential. Connor McDavid has been on another level, racking up 13 points (2G, 11A) in five games to shatter the NHL-era Olympic scoring record.
Macklin Celebrini, just 19, leads the tournament in goals and has been one of the breakout stories of these Games.
The knockout rounds haven’t been easy. Canada trailed Czechia 3-2 in the third period of the quarters before Nick Suzuki tied it and Mitch Marner won it in overtime. Then against Finland in the semis, they fell behind 2-0 before Nathan MacKinnon scored the winner with 35.2 seconds left on a power play. That’s two consecutive comeback wins to reach a gold medal game.
Crosby left the quarterfinal with a lower-body injury and missed the semifinal. Coach Jon Cooper said after the Finland win that Crosby has “a lot better chance” of playing Sunday.
Jordan Binnington has been solid in net with a .921 save percentage, and he already beat Hellebuyck head-to-head in the 4 Nations Face-Off final last February.
USA vs Canada Head-to-Head History
Canada owns this rivalry in best-on-best play. They’ve won 10 of 14 best-on-best international tournaments involving NHL players since the 1976 Canada Cup, and their Olympic record against the Americans sits at 12-2-1 all time.
USA vs Canada Best-on-Best History (NHL Era)
The most recent meeting was the 4 Nations Face-Off final in February 2025, where McDavid scored at 8:18 of overtime to give Canada a 3-2 win. The Americans did win the round-robin meeting 3-1, but Canada got the one that counted. That final drew over 10 million North American viewers.
The USA’s only best-on-best title came at the 1996 World Cup of Hockey, nearly 30 years ago. In elimination games against Canada with NHL rosters, the Americans have never won.
Projected USA vs Canada Odds Movement
The American public is going to hammer the USA at plus-money. DraftKings director Johnny Avello has already said as much: anytime you get the U.S. at a plus price in a game people think they can win, the money floods in. That could push Canada’s line down slightly, giving you a better price on the Canadians if that’s your lean.
Crosby’s status could nudge the line a bit too, but this game is close enough on paper that it’s not going to swing dramatically either way. The bigger mover will be the sheer volume of public action.
The total at 5.5 with the under at -162 already feels priced correctly. Hellebuyck’s .957 save percentage and the elimination-game intensity both point toward a low-scoring affair. The last time these two played for gold with NHL players in 2010, it took overtime to settle a 3-2 game.
We’ll have our full USA vs Canada gold medal prediction closer to Sunday’s early morning puck drop.
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