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- The MLB leading Dodgers begin a four-game set against their fierce N.L. West rival Padres Thursday
- LA has been on a heater, while San Diego has been mashed in their last five outings
- See my favorite bet to make for this clash plus an MLB player prop that I’m wagering on July 2nd
The Los Angeles Dodgers (56-31) and San Diego Padres (43-42) are opening a four-game set Thursday night, with LA having won four of six meetings on the season. The Dodgers are coming off an uncharacteristic loss, given their hot play, but the Padres are in turmoil. They’ve lost five straight, but even worse, have been pounded, surrendering 15 runs to their rivals last Saturday, and coming off a 23-3 shellacking at the hands of the Cubs Wednesday.
Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers are significant favorites in the MLB odds. First pitch is slated for 7:10 PM PT / 10:10 PM ET. You can catch the broadcast on MLB Network, SportsNet LA, and SDPA. Keep reading for my picks and analysis for this heavyweight bout.
Padres vs Dodgers Predictions & Picks
The Dodgers enter this series opener as a massive home favorite. My primary prediction is the Dodgers Moneyline. You can grab the Dodgers to win at 65¢ on Kalshi, offering slightly better value than traditional sportsbooks pricing them at -195.
The betting trends heavily support this angle. The Dodgers are 52-30 (63.4%) as a favorite this year and boast a 70% win rate over their last ten games. The Padres have won just 33.3% of their recent games as an underdog. That doesn’t even take into account how badly they’ve been crushed in the last week.
For an MLB player prop selection, I love fading Fernando Tatis Jr tonight. The Padres outfielder has stayed under 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games. Take Fernando Tatis Jr Under 1.5 Total Bases at 61¢ on Kalshi.
Padres vs Dodgers Season Stats
Probable Pitchers Matchup
The MLB probable pitchers are hurlers that haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders throughout the campaign. Sasaki holds a 4.88 ERA but backs it up with a strong 9.00 K/9 and a 4.25 xFIP. Vásquez sports a 4.44 ERA masking a concerning 4.88 xFIP and a low 6.84 K/9.
Over his last ten starts, Vásquez has been battered to the tune of a 5.51 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP, striking out a meager 4.94 batters per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .325 against him in that span. Sasaki has tightened his command recently, dropping his WHIP to 1.16 over his last ten outings.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds & Betting Splits
Odds as of July 2 at 2:27 pm ET from Caesars Sportsbook and Kalshi. Click here for a Caesars Sportsbook promo code before betting on Padres vs Dodgers.
In the MLB public betting splits, 89% of the tickets are on the Dodgers to emerge victorious on the moneyline, and 74% of the handle is on the home team. 76% of both the wagers and cash are also on Dodgers to cover the run line.
As for the run total, 56% of bets are on over 9 runs, while 86% of the moola has been placed on the over as well.
SD vs LA Injury Report
How to Watch Padres vs Dodgers
TV Networks: Padres.TV and SportsNet LA
Away Team: San Diego Padres
Home Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Thursday, July 2nd
Game Time: 7:10 PM PT / 10:10 PM ET
Venue: Uniqlo Field
Location: Los Angeles, California