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The Philippine gaming industry could post lower gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2026, declining by as much as 19%, with regulatory changes affecting online gambling activity and geopolitical tensions influencing consumer spending, according to the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (PAGCOR).
Speaking on the sidelines of the SiGMA Asia Summit, PAGCOR Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Alejandro H. Tengco said industry revenue may finish below last year’s level.
“Personally, I believe that it will be a lower GGR compared to 2025. Probably we are looking at maybe P320-350 billion (US$5.12-5.60 billion) ,” Tengco said.
The Philippine gaming sector generated P396.14 billion (US$6.34 billion) in GGR in 2025.
According to Tengco, one factor behind the projected decline is the removal of e-wallet links from online gambling platforms. The policy has affected electronic gaming operations, with segment revenue declining 22.43% year over year to P39.9 billion during the first quarter.
In 2025, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) directed banks, e-wallet providers and other supervised financial institutions to remove access links to online gambling platforms from their applications.
“But I think it (the decline) is primarily because of the Middle East crisis. Prior to this crisis, the online gaming segment has already overtaken the land-based casinos, but we are not seeing the same after the Middle East crisis,” Tengco said.
“The lower C segment and the upper D are the ones who are affected now by the crisis, and before placing their bets or playing online, they would make sure that they eat. They are able to buy the basic necessities,” he added.
Economic pressures affect discretionary spending
Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development Senior Research Fellow Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes said the sector may continue facing pressure in the coming quarters as consumers remain cautious.
“Gaming revenues are likely to remain somewhat subdued in the near term, particularly while inflation stays elevated, and consumer spending remains cautious. Several factors suggest the environment could stay challenging over the next few quarters,” he told BusinessWorld.
“Higher fuel and transport costs are squeezing household disposable income, reducing spending on nonessential activities such as gaming,” he added.
Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, exceeding the BSP’s 2%-4% target range for a second straight month and surpassing the central bank’s 5.6%-6.4% forecast for the period.
Peña-Reyes said weaker economic activity and softer consumer sentiment have affected gaming demand, particularly in online and electronic channels.
“The electronic gaming segment, which was previously the main growth driver, contracted considerably in the first quarter, indicating that even digitally driven demand is becoming sensitive to macroeconomic stress,” he added.
The decline in electronic gaming contributed to a drop in overall industry revenue. Philippine gaming GGR fell 15.87% year over year to P87.6 billion (US$1.40 billion) in the first quarter from P104.12 billion (US$1.67 billion).
Tourism recovery offers support for casinos
Despite the softer outlook, Tengco said rising visitor arrivals could support integrated resorts and land-based casino operations.
“Tourism is on the upswing… I heard that there is now an uptick in the tourism sector. Definitely, that will help, that will bring in customers to the integrated resorts or land-based casinos,” he said.
Data from the Department of Tourism (DoT) showed international visitor arrivals increased 8.97% to 2.295 million in the January-to-April period from 2.106 million a year earlier.
Tengco pointed to growth in arrivals from China, a market that has historically contributed traffic to integrated resorts and casino properties.
“I heard it is increasing because of this 14-day no-visa policy,” he added.
The visa policy allows Chinese nationals traveling for tourism or business purposes to stay in the Philippines for up to 14 days without a visa.
DoT data showed arrivals from China rose 61.73% to 150,708 during the first four months of the year.
Land-based segment remains largest contributor
Peña-Reyes said the industry’s current challenges are unlikely to result in a prolonged downturn, citing the performance of licensed integrated casino operators.
“Licensed integrated casinos remained relatively resilient and became the largest contributor to GGR in the first quarter,” he said.
The segment generated P44.5 billion (US$712.0 million) in GGR during the quarter, accounting for 50.83% of total industry revenue.
Looking ahead, Peña-Reyes said easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices could support consumer spending later in the year.
“Discretionary spending could gradually recover in the second half,” he said.
“Overall, the near-term outlook is cautiously optimistic,” he said. “Revenues may remain muted or volatile over the next few quarters, but the longer-term structural growth story for Philippine gaming, particularly digital gaming, appears intact once macroeconomic conditions improve.”