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- The Bills are 8-point home favorites over the Patriots in Week 5 Sunday Night Football odds
- Buffalo’s defense is decimated with Matt Milano and Ed Oliver questionable, Dorian Williams and Strong out
- See my Patriots vs Bills predictions and Sunday Night Football picks below, plus the latest betting odds
The Bills enter Sunday Night Football undefeated at 4-0, but their defense is falling apart. Matt Milano and Ed Oliver are both questionable after limited practice all week. Dorian Williams and Dorian Strong won’t play at all. That’s four defensive starters either out or compromised for a primetime divisional matchup.
The Patriots (2-2, 1-1 away) have covered four straight against Buffalo despite being underdogs every time. Drake Maye gets his best matchup yet against this banged-up defense. Meanwhile, the Bills have struggled to stop the run despite their 4-0 record.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction and Pick
https://tally.site/brady-trett/betslips/1759638468717-481c-494
The sharp money has this one figured out. The total has steadily climbed from 46.5 to 49.5, with 70.7% of the money on the Over. However, there are only 41% of bets, meaning the wagers are substantial. The sharps are seeing what we can all see: the Bills’ defense has major holes.
Without Milano, the Bills lose their best coverage linebacker. Hunter Henry should feast over the middle. His 41.5 receiving yards line looks too low. Ed Oliver’s ankle issue removes their interior pass rush. That gives Maye time to find Stefon Diggs in his revenge game.
The spread gets interesting. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Buffalo. They’ve kept every game close despite being outgunned on paper. Now they catch the Bills at their most vulnerable defensively. While I’m not officially playing the spread, the Patriots +8 has some value.
My favorite player prop is Allen’s interception at +125. The Patriots are a feisty defensive team with three interceptions forced this season. New England’s defense thrives on creating mistakes, having picked off Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, and Aaron Rodgers already this season.
The high-scoring total suggests we will see plenty of points and a potential shootout. Allen has done an excellent job taking care of the football since the early days of his career, but he did throw his first pick of the season last week vs New Orleans.
I think Allen will be asked to pass more on Sunday with the holes in the Bills’ defense. The Patriots have a talented corner group, including a healthy Christian Gonzales, to capitalize on this aggressive approach. I’m taking the plus money on back-to-back interception weeks for Allen, considering the high over/under in this game.
The score projection aligns with historical trends. The Over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these teams. Meanwhile, Buffalo has gone Over in all three home games this season. With perfect weather conditions and both teams facing defensive limitations, expect fireworks.
Week 5 SNF Picks:
NE vs BUF Player Props to Target
Hunter Henry over 41.5 receiving yards is the best New England player prop on the board. Milano’s absence creates a massive hole in coverage. Henry needs just approximately four catches to clear this number against backup linebackers.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing line sits at just 30.5 yards. That’s a bit disrespectful against a Bills defense missing multiple starters. The Patriots will lean on their ground game to attempt to control the clock and keep Allen on the sideline.
NE Patriots vs BUF Bills Betting Odds
The line opened at Bills -9.5, but buyback brought it to -8 in the Sunday night football odds. The moneyline moved from -385 to -455 as money poured in on Buffalo to win outright.
But the real story is the total. Sharp bettors hammered the Over, driving it from 46.5 to 49.5. That three-point jump signals overwhelming professional action.
According to the NFL public betting percentages, 59.9% of bets are on the Under, but 70.7% of money backs the Over. Classic sharp versus square disagreement.
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Odds as of Oct. 5 at NFL betting apps. Shop multiple books for the best Patriots vs Bills betting lines.
New England vs Buffalo Matchup Analysis
The Bills have won 14 straight home regular-season games. They’re 15-4 in primetime since 2022. But they’ve never faced this Patriots team with their defense this compromised.
Buffalo allows just 77.5 rushing yards per game when healthy. Without Oliver clogging the middle and Milano filling gaps, those numbers become way less relevant. Stevenson and Antonio Gibson should find running lanes all night.
Josh Allen needs one win to become the first reigning MVP to start 5-0 since Aaron Rodgers in 2015. He has 45 career games with both a passing and rushing touchdown, tied with Cam Newton for the most by any player in NFL history. But the Patriots’ defense creates turnovers at a high rate.
Recent Trends: Patriots vs Bills
Patriots vs Bills Injury Report
Buffalo’s injury list reads like a casualty report. Dorian Williams (knee) and Dorian Strong (neck) are both out. That’s two defensive starters who won’t play.
The bigger concerns are Matt Milano (pectoral) and Ed Oliver (ankle). Both were limited all week and are questionable. Milano is their defensive quarterback who makes all the coverage calls. Oliver generates interior pressure that makes their edge rushers effective.
New England’s injury report is cleaner. K’Lavon Chaisson (knee) didn’t practice and won’t play. Milton Williams (ankle) was limited but should go. The Patriots have their key players ready for this divisional showdown.
The market movement tells you everything. Sharp money drove the total up three full points. With Buffalo’s defense this depleted, both offenses should put up numbers.
I’m taking the Over 48.5 and Allen to throw a pick as my Patriots vs Bills predictions for Sunday Night Football. The injuries are too significant to ignore.
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