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- World #5 Elena Rybakina is a -225 favorite over #6 Jessica Pegula in the Aussie Open semifinals
- This is the seventh meeting between these two, but the first in a Grand Slam
- See my Pegula vs Rybakina picks and prediction, plus the latest odds, below
It will be the seventh time that Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula go head-to-head, but the first time in a Grand Slam, and the stakes are enormous: a trip to the Australian Open Women’s Final.
Rybakina, who reached this tournament final in 2022, is a -225 favorite over Pegula in Wednesday’s Australian Open odds. Outside of the US Open, this is the furthest Pegula has made it in any other Grand Slam.
Pegula vs Rybakina goes Thursday morning at 5am ET from Rod Laver Arena, with ESPN and ESPN Unlimited providing the broadcast coverage.
Pegula vs Rybakina Odds
Even though she’s yet to drop a set in Melbourne, Pegula finds herself as a +175 underdog on the moneyline, and a 3.5-game ‘dog on the spread. The total for this match is 22.5 in this best-of-three match.
Odds as of January 28 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.
Pegula has been all business Down Under, not losing a set in the Aussie Open yet, and the American has just finished up wins over defending champion and 9th-ranked Madison Keys, and 4th-seeded Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinals.
Anisimova has come the closest to pushing Pegula to a third set, pushing their second set to a tiebreak, before the 31-year-old dusted her 7-1 to close out the match.
So far in Australia, Pegula has held her opponent to two games or less in six of her 10 set wins. She’ll be playing in her third career Grand Slam semi and her second in a row, as she’s reached the Final Four two other times at the US Open.
Pegula vs Rybakina H2H Results
It’s been an equally dominant run for Rybakina, who has also been perfect in Melbourne, with opponents getting to four games won in a set three times in 10 total sets.
She made quick work of no. 2 seed Iga Swiatek in the quarters, this following a 6-1, 6-3 demolition of 21st seed Elise Mertens in the Fourth Round.
It’s been a solid start to her Grand Slam season for her, as she’s gone further in Australia than she did in any of the four majors last year, failing to reach the quarterfinals even one time.
Pegula vs Rybakina Picks & Prediction
- Over 22.5 Games (-110 at bet365)
Rybakina has been on a really nice, extended run. Since Wimbledon last year, she leads the tour in wins with 35, including two tournament titles, and has wins 18 of her last 19. This isn’t a soft sched, either: she’s won eight straight against Top 10 players.
The Kazakhstan-born Rybakina is an elite power player, and her booming serve leads all ladies, hammering 35 aces in the Aussie Open, 11 in her win against Swiatek.
That’s normally enough to her and the spread, but Pegula is playing great tennis, and has shown the ability to handle big hitters after neutralizing Anisimova.
While her ability to break serves is coming at just a 35.7% clip in Melbourne, if she can raise that a little bit, then she can certainly take a set in this one, similar to their last match in Riyadh, when Rybakina needed three sets to win and they cruised past the total.