Picks, Predictions & Splits for Dodgers vs Mets (Jul 25)

• The Dodgers moneyline (-150) offers value against a struggling home pitching staff in Dodgers vs Mets odds
• Seeing Under 8.5 runs (U 8.5, -122) is the statistical play with two elite starters on the mound
• Teoscar Hernández Over 0.5 hits has strong value in Dodgers vs Mets player props

The Los Angeles Dodgers (66-38) and New York Mets (43-61) are continuing their series at Citi Field on Saturday, July 25, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 PM EST on FOX. Entering this matchup, the surging Dodgers sit comfortably as heavy road favorites, leaving the struggling Mets in the familiar role of home underdogs.

In yesterday’s series opener, the Dodgers secured a tight 4-2 victory, fueled by an 11-hit offensive showcase and a clutch home run from Kyle Tucker. The Mets sputtered with just four hits, though Luis Robert Jr and Francisco Alvarez provided brief flashes of life with a pair of solo homers.

With the Dodgers seeking to cement their league-leading status behind superstar Shohei Ohtani, this game presents distinct betting angles. The Mets will rely on Francisco Lindor to spark an upset. I will break down the pitching matchups, offensive statistics, and MLB odds to find the edge.

Dodgers vs Mets Picks and Predictions

With an elite pitching matchup on deck, evaluating this contest comes down to which lineup executes with runners on base. The Dodgers boast a significant offensive advantage, tallying an MLB-best 5.87 runs per game on the road. The Mets manage just 4.34 runs per game at home.

Taking the Dodgers on the moneyline (-150 at Kalshi) is my top official prediction. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant on the mound, maintaining a 2.78 ERA. Nolan McLean has been a bright spot for the Mets, but the Dodgers provide far more reliable run support. Looking at the data, the Dodgers are an impressive 61-36 (62.9% win rate) as a favorite this season. The Mets are just 10-30 (25.0% win rate) as an underdog.

For the game total, the numbers point toward the Under 8.5 runs (-122 at Kalshi). Both starters possess WHIPs under 1.10, and Yamamoto’s 0.88 is one of the best in the majors. Their combined ability to limit free passes should keep traffic on the basepaths to a minimum.

When searching for the best MLB player props, Teoscar Hernández to record a hit (-175 at FanDuel) stands out. Following a highly profitable situational trend, Hernández has exceeded 0.5 hits in four of his last five road games, yielding an 80.0% success rate.

Additionally, backing Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 strikeouts (-158 at FanDuel) offers a sound analytical approach. Despite his run-prevention skills, his strikeout rate sits at a moderate 8.50 K/9. To clear the 6.5-strikeout hurdle, he would likely need to pitch deep into the seventh inning.

Dodgers vs Mets Probable Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean

Saturday’s pitching matchup features an excellent statistical battle. The Dodgers will hand the ball to their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while the Mets counter with the heavy-strikeout profile of Nolan McLean.

Yamamoto has been highly effective for the Dodgers, limiting opposing lineups to a .188 batting average and posting a 0.88 WHIP. While his 8.50 K/9 does not leap off the page, his pristine 4.52 K/BB ratio highlights excellent command.

On the other side, McLean’s 7-6 record is a deceptive indicator of his actual performance. The right-hander boasts a 3.30 FIP, slightly edging out Yamamoto’s 3.33 mark. This suggests he has pitched better than his win-loss record implies. McLean relies on his swing-and-miss arsenal, evidenced by a 10.72 K/9.

Both starters are entering this matchup in peak form over their last 10 appearances. Yamamoto has shut down opponents recently, posting a 2.19 ERA while providing deep innings. McLean has matched that run-prevention prowess, logging a 2.07 ERA with 10.38 strikeouts per nine innings.

Dodgers vs Mets: Batter vs Pitcher Splits

Dodgers Batters vs Nolan McLean

Mets Batters vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Francisco Lindor has experienced the most success in this matchup, recording two hits and a home run across seven career at-bats against Yamamoto. Bo Bichette and Max Muncy are the only other hitters to register a hit against tonight’s starters based on the MLB batter vs pitcher stats.

Conversely, McLean has overpowered the Dodgers sluggers in limited encounters. He struck out Teoscar Hernández in all three of their meetings and fanned both Freddie Freeman and Andy Pages twice. Mark Vientos and Brett Baty have similarly struggled against Yamamoto, pointing toward potential strikeout angles.

Dodgers vs Mets: Team Stats and Betting Trends Comparison

The statistical profiles reveal a stark contrast between a championship contender and a rebuilding club.

Note: Offensive metrics reflect away game statistics for the Dodgers and home game statistics for the Mets to isolate situational performance.

Even when dealing with the rigors of travel, the Dodgers boast a highly productive lineup. They pace the league with 5.87 runs per game and an .806 OPS away from Dodger Stadium. Conversely, the Mets consistently struggle to protect their home turf. They rank in the bottom tier in batting average (.235) and OPS (.696) at Citi Field.

Neither team relies heavily on manufacturing runs on the basepaths. The Mets rank 21st in home stolen bases per game (0.54), while the Dodgers are even less aggressive on the road (0.46). Instead, the Dodgers lean on elite contact quality to inflict damage, ranking seventh in away average exit velocity.

These team-level mismatches trickle down to individual production. Given the elite road metrics, backing Shohei Ohtani on his total bases is an enticing look. For the Mets, keeping pace falls squarely on Francisco Lindor.

Here are the most notable situational betting trends for this matchup:

• The Dodgers are 66-38 straight up, boasting a 63.5% overall win rate.
• The Dodgers operate effectively as a favorite, holding a 61-36 record (62.9% win rate).
• The Mets struggle heavily as an underdog, posting a 10-30 mark (25.0% win rate).
• The Mets are mired in a slump, winning just three of their last 10 games (30.0% win rate).

Dodgers vs Mets: Betting Odds and Public Betting Splits

Odds as of July 24, 2026, at 10:06 PM EST from bet365. Claim your bet365 bonus now

The Dodgers enter this contest as heavily backed road favorites, carrying -172 odds on the moneyline. The betting market shows tremendous confidence in their elite offensive advantages. The Dodgers opened as a -161 favorite, but an influx of action forced oddsmakers to adjust the line.

The runline spread opened with the Dodgers favored by -1.5 runs at +110 odds. That payout shortened to +101 in response to heavy backing. On the other side, the game total opened at a flat eight runs and has remained stationary. This lack of movement indicates strong institutional respect for both starting pitchers. Alternatively, Kalshi offers Yes on the Dodgers to win the first 5 innings at 47 cents.

Analyzing where the money flows provides a valuable glimpse into market confidence, and I’m using the MLB public betting data to back that up. In the moneyline market, 67.2% of the betting tickets and an overwhelming 87.5% of the total money wagered back the Dodgers. Because both metrics exceed 60%, bettors of all sizes are firmly aligned on the favorite.

While my moneyline prediction matches the consensus, my read on the game total goes against the grain. The Over draws massive support, capturing 80.0% of the tickets and 79.1% of the money. Despite this public expectation for a high-scoring game, I remain steadfast on the Under due to the elite run-prevention metrics of both starters.

Dodgers vs Mets Injury Report and Game Impact

Health and availability are massive factors as this series continues. The Dodgers are weathering a storm of injuries, with multiple players residing on the injured list. The Mets deal with active injuries of their own, further challenging a roster struggling to find consistency.

Despite owning the best record in baseball, the Dodgers navigate a treacherous injury landscape on the mound. With premium starters like Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell sidelined, they rely heavily on Yamamoto to pitch deep into games. The bullpen is equally battered, meaning the late innings are far less secure than usual.

On the offensive side, the Dodgers miss Will Smith’s stabilizing presence behind the dish. Still, their top-ranked road offense has proven resilient enough to absorb these losses.

For the Mets, the absence of Mark Vientos removes a crucial power element from an offense already floundering at Citi Field. Without Vientos, their lineup becomes much easier for Yamamoto to navigate. The pitching staff is also dealing with major structural losses, including Clay Holmes and Tylor Megill. With fewer reliable arms available to string together outs, the pressure on McLean increases significantly.