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The Chicago Cubs (6-6, 3-3 home, 6-5-1 O/U) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (7-5, 3-3 away, 7-5 O/U) to Wrigley Field on April 10 for a 2:20 pm ET matinee.
The pitching matchup features Chicago’s Shota Imanaga against Pittsburgh’s Carmen Mlodzinski.
The Cubs are coming off a 6-2 win over the Angels, while the Pirates arrive after an 8-3 drubbing of the Reds, powered by momentum-shifting home runs from Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
Chicago opened as a -155 moneyline favorite, but early action drove the price down to -140. Pittsburgh’s runline also opened at a steeper -190 before settling at the current -175 mark.
The game total opened at a notably low 6.5 runs and remains stagnant. Despite the low number reflecting the pitcher-friendly weather, bettors are juicing the Over at -120.
Bettors can find better prices on several markets at prediction site Kalshi.
Click “Predict” to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.
The Cubs’ 58¢ price is equal to -138 odds, slightly better than what’s available at traditional sportsbooks. The Pirates’ 43¢ price is equal to +133, against better than the books.
The Pittsburgh runline (+1.5) is much better at Kalshi; the 61¢ trading price is equal to -156 odds.
Pirates vs Cubs Picks & Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+133) at Kalshi
I find immense appeal in backing the road underdogs today. Pittsburgh arrives with a .247 team batting average and a .721 OPS. They comfortably outpace Chicago’s sluggish offense, which is hitting just .223 with a .680 OPS early in the campaign.
Pittsburgh is mashing the baseball away from PNC Park, launching an impressive 1.67 home runs per road game. Meanwhile, the Cubs hold a concerning 40.0% win rate (2-3) as favorites this season.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Imanaga aims to bounce back from an uneven start. While his 4.50 ERA leaves room for improvement, his solid 3.18 FIP indicates unfortunate sequencing. His ability to miss bats remains a major asset, fanning 26.8% of the batters he has faced.
Mlodzinski brings electric swing-and-miss stuff for Pittsburgh. He boasts an eye-popping 13.00 K/9. His struggles stem from putting runners on base, evidenced by a 1.56 WHIP, but his elite 1.29 FIP suggests his ERA is heavily inflated by bad luck on balls in play.
I trust Pittsburgh’s superior offensive metrics and road power to pull off the upset against a struggling home favorite.
Over/Under Pick: Under 6.5 (+113) at Kalshi
The Under has cashed in 70.0% of Chicago’s last 10 games. Both pitchers feature elite strikeout rates to keep scoring low.
The weather is the biggest factor; the winds are going to be blowing in at Wrigley, creating a real premium on scoring.
Pirates vs Cubs Betting Splits
Friday’s MLB public betting splits action reveal a heavy consensus forming around the home team. Currently, 73.6% of the moneyline tickets and 64.6% of the money are backing Chicago. Since both tickets and money exceed 60% on the same side, there is no sharp-vs-public divide here.
The runline market shows similar confidence in the home squad. A massive 80.7% of tickets and 82.2% of the money are laying the runs with Chicago. Bettors expect them to win comfortably.
For the total, 87.4% of tickets and 86.4% of the money are backing the Over. By picking the Under and the Pirates moneyline, my betting card stands entirely against the public grain. I prefer to trust the analytical pitching edges over popular consensus.
Pirates vs Cubs Injury Reports
A look at the current health of both rosters reveals a stark contrast. Chicago enters this matchup severely depleted, while Pittsburgh arrives relatively healthy for this series opener.
Chicago is missing eight players compared to just two for Pittsburgh. The absence of Seiya Suzuki is a massive offensive hurdle. Chicago’s lineup is already struggling, and missing his bat makes stringing together hits against Mlodzinski incredibly difficult.
Chicago’s pitching staff is decimated. They desperately need length from Imanaga today. If he runs into early trouble, an exposed and depleted bullpen will have to face a potent Pittsburgh lineup that loves hitting on the road.