Player Props & Picks for Pirates/Reds

• The Pirates and Reds continue their four-game set today in Cincinnati
• Hunter Greene has fallen short of his strikeout prop in five of his last six starts
• Keep reading for the player props and picks for the Pirates/Reds contest, below

The Pittsburgh Pirates (55-55) are looking to exact revenge against the Cincinnati Reds (51-57) tonight at Great American Ball Park. After dropping a tight 3-2 contest in Game 1 of this series last night, Pittsburgh enters this matchup as slight road favorites in the MLB odds. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM ET, with the MLB weather forecast projecting a perfect evening for baseball.

I am zeroing in on a blockbuster pitching duel between two elite flamethrowers: Pittsburgh phenom Paul Skenes (9-9) and Cincinnati ace Hunter Greene (2-2). With dynamic bats like Elly De La Cruz stepping into the box against these power arms, runs will be at a massive premium.

I am bypassing any side or total bet for this contest, choosing instead to get my action in the MLB player props market. Below, check out my favorite player props and picks for the Pirates/Reds showdown.

Player Prop Odds for Pirates/Reds

Odds as of July 31, 2026. Claim your BetMGM promo now to get involved in today’s action.

Looking at the batting markets, Esmerlyn Valdez holds the shortest home run odds on the board at +330. With Oneil Cruz parked on the 60-day injured list, Pittsburgh desperately needs Valdez to step up and provide some raw power.

For contact props, Sal Stewart (-211) and Bryan Reynolds (-196) are heavily juiced to reach base safely via a knock. Great American Ball Park currently ranks 19th in runs scored per game (8.61) per the MLB park factors, so stringing together multiple hits will be tough. However, the venue still surrenders 2.72 home runs per contest, keeping sluggers firmly in play for total bases.

The pitching markets present a fascinating dynamic. Paul Skenes is heavily expected to pitch deep into this contest, holding strong -175 odds to eclipse 17.5 total outs. This means oddsmakers project the rookie to easily clear the sixth inning.

On the Cincinnati side, Hunter Greene’s market sits at a lofty 7.5 strikeouts. With several Reds relievers dealing with long-term injuries—including Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan—manager David Bell might try to push Greene to eat extra innings..

Player Props and Picks for Pirates/Reds

Pick: Hunter Greene Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-158 at Caesars)

When evaluating Greene, you have to respect his underlying swing-and-miss stuff. He boasts a staggering 12.05 K/9 on the 2026 season. However, I am looking to fade him aggressively at this specific 7.5 threshold.

Greene has simply fallen off a cliff when trying to push past the 7.5 barrier in recent weeks. The data points strictly toward regression in this specific statistical category.

• Greene is a dismal 1-3 versus a total pitcher strikeouts over/under of 7.5 in his last four starts against Pittsburgh.
• He has gone under a 7.5 strikeout line in 5 of his last 6 games overall.

Over his last six outings, he is averaging exactly 6.0 strikeouts per game according to the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. At -158, I am perfectly happy eating a little bit of juice to fade a number he routinely fails to reach.

Pick: Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits (-114 at BetMGM)

At first glance, relying on Henry Davis to record a base hit might seem like a risky proposition. The catcher has struggled at the plate this season, batting just .171. But in the prop betting market, situational recency completely trumps season-long averages.

With backup catcher Rafael Flores Jr sidelined on the 7-day IL with a head injury, Davis is locked into a full-time role and guaranteed all the at-bats he can handle tonight. He turns into a completely different hitter when Cincinnati is in the opposing dugout.

• Davis has gone over his 0.5 hits line in 4 of his last 5 games against the Reds.
• During that span against Cincinnati, he is averaging 1.2 hits per game.

Getting a highly achievable standard -114 price tag for a player who continually succeeds in this exact situational matchup makes this a premier value play.

Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits (-177 at BetMGM)

If you are looking to build a parlay or don’t mind laying extra juice on a straight bet, backing Elly De La Cruz to simply reach base via a knock is a phenomenal angle. The dynamic infielder is swinging a remarkably consistent bat down the stretch.

• De La Cruz has gone over his 0.5 hits line in 11 of his last 15 games.

This translates to a robust 73% cover rate over roughly three weeks of action. In those 15 contests, he is generating 1.2 hits per game. For those looking to monitor MLB hit streaks, De La Cruz is producing the exact type of reliable contact metrics I want to back.