Polymarket Claims Kalshi Spying on Rival

Polymarket, the prediction-market platform known for wagers on sports, weather, and other events, has begun investigating what it suspects is corporate espionage by rival Kalshi. CEO Shayne Coplan and his team have compiled a “copycat” dossier highlighting a series of suspicious incidents, including closely timed product launches and marketing campaigns that mirror Polymarket’s own.

“There have been a couple too many coincidences,” Matthew Modabber, Polymarket’s head of marketing, told The Post. “There is bad intention in how they copy us. They’re breathing down our neck.”

Internal discussions at Polymarket have also raised concerns that moles may exist within the company. One point of scrutiny involves Paradigm, a venture-capital firm backing Kalshi, which leases offices directly across the street from Polymarket’s Soho headquarters. Employees feared that Paradigm could observe parts of their operations, prompting Polymarket to tint windows this spring to limit visibility. According to New York Post, a Paradigm spokesperson called these concerns “laughable,” while Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such said, “This is sad and borderline delusional. Polymarket is welcome to waste its time investigating. While they do that, we’ll keep building.”

Suspicious Product Launches Heighten Tensions

Polymarket’s investigation intensified after February events in Manhattan. The platform had planned a pop-up grocery store for 300 customers, with leases and production finalized months in advance. Nine days prior to the launch, Kalshi hosted its own grocery promotion at a separate New York market, offering $50 vouchers and promoting wagers like the price of eggs.

“Their intent was to just dilute our event,” a Polymarket source said. “The event was very meaningful to Shayne, having grown up in New York, and we were disappointed.” Kalshi’s communications head Elisabeth Diana said the timing was coincidental, and the campaign had been long in development.

Polymarket also claims Kalshi preempted its April 21 launch of perpetual futures contracts, or “perps,” which allow users to speculate on asset prices without ownership. According to insiders, The Information reported Kalshi’s plan an hour before Polymarket’s announcement. Such stated Kalshi had been developing its launch since 2024 and that public knowledge of the date was from a social media teaser posted earlier in April.

Dossier of Alleged Copying

The “copycat” dossier compiled by Polymarket includes screenshots of social media posts, app designs, and product announcements, which the company says represent just a fraction of potential copying instances. One example shows Polymarket’s August 2024 football betting ad targeting California users, which Kalshi allegedly mirrored with similar visuals and copy. Kalshi contends that phrases like “Hey California” are common, denying infringement.

The rivalry traces back to Polymarket’s 2020 U.S. launch and subsequent exit in 2022 due to regulatory restrictions. Kalshi, established in 2018, later dominated U.S. political and event-based prediction markets, spurring competition. The two companies have since attracted significant Silicon Valley investment, with Polymarket raising around $2 billion and targeting a $15 billion valuation, while Kalshi has raised roughly $2.6 billion and is valued at $22 billion.