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Polymarket has launched prediction markets tied to private companies, including OpenAI and SpaceX, expanding beyond its core sports and political betting products as competition intensifies in the fast-growing prediction market sector.
The new markets, launched in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market, allow users to wager on outcomes tied to private firms such as valuation milestones, IPO timing, and secondary share activity.
Among the initial contracts are positions on whether OpenAI will surpass a $1 trillion valuation by the end of 2026, alongside markets linked to companies such as Anthropic, Anduril, SpaceX, Stripe, Kraken, and Databricks.
The contracts do not provide ownership stakes in the companies and instead function as event-based wagers whose outcomes are determined using data supplied exclusively by Nasdaq Private Market.
Polymarket Chief Executive Shayne Coplan said the launch would give retail traders access to a part of finance that has traditionally been reserved for venture capital firms, institutions, and accredited investors. He said it extends the platform’s stated goal of broadening access to financial information.
“Today’s launch brings that power to one of the last frontiers of financial markets that retail participants have never been able to access,” Coplan said.
Polymarket and Nasdaq Private Market also said the products could provide “a new real-time signal for institutional investors” by offering faster sentiment indicators in private markets, where valuation updates are often limited to funding rounds and secondary share sales.
The launch comes as prediction market operators face mounting scrutiny over insider trading risks and market manipulation.
U.S. prosecutors in April charged soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using Polymarket wagers tied to a Venezuelan operation that allegedly generated more than $400,000 in profits. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty.
In response to concerns over market integrity, Polymarket said it uses “a multi-layered monitoring system — including real-time surveillance and partnerships with world-class technology specialists — to detect potential violations and protect the integrity of every market outcome”.
Tom Callahan, Chief Executive of Nasdaq Private Market, said the partnership was intended to ensure accurate contract resolution.
The private-company products are currently available only on Polymarket’s international platform, which is blocked for trading in the United States and the UK, although some users reportedly access the service through virtual private networks.
Polymarket’s international site generally does not require proof of identity and permits payments through anonymous cryptocurrency channels.
The broader prediction market industry is increasingly targeting institutional investors as regulators continue debating whether such platforms should be treated as gambling businesses or financial exchanges.
Rival Kalshi recently secured a $22 billion valuation in a $1 billion funding round led by Coatue. Kalshi said it would use the funding to expand block trading capabilities and develop new risk-management products for institutional clients.
The industry has also begun experimenting with other forms of private-market exposure. Earlier this month, TradeXYZ launched pre-IPO perpetual futures tied to companies including SpaceX and Cerebras.