Polymarket reportedly in talks for $400M funding round, eyes $15B valuation after recent growth

Polymarket is reportedly weighing a $400 million fundraising round at a $15 billion valuation following a recent $600 million raise, with internal discussions focused on whether to proceed now or delay for a higher price, according to Bloomberg.

The proposed round would follow a series of investments that lifted the company’s valuation from $1 billion in June last year to $9 billion later in the year, and a $600 million raise in March 2026. The prediction market operator would now attain a $15 billion valuation in the latest funding round. 

Despite the increase in valuation, Polymarket remains below rival Kalshi Inc., which recently reached $22 billion in a $1 billion fundraising round. Polymarket’s investors include Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), in addition to a venture capital firm backed by Donald Trump Jr.

Trading activity accelerates

The funding discussions come during a period of rising activity on the platform. Polymarket has reported more than $1 billion in weekly trading volume. In March, notional trading volume reached $10.6 billion, or six times the level recorded six months earlier, according to user-compiled data on Dune Analytics.

The platform allows users to trade on the outcomes of events by buying and selling shares tied to specific results, including elections, geopolitical developments, and sports. It generates revenue through commissions on certain trades, with a variable fee structure. The company states that geopolitical and world events markets are “fee-free.”

Polymarket recently gained further attention for contracts linked to developments in the Middle East, including wagers on the timing of US-Israel strikes against Iran and the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire, some of which appeared to bear signs of insider trading.

The platform also hosts markets on a range of other topics, including the potential departure date of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the second coming of Jesus Christ, and outcomes of elections in multiple countries.

Data flows into financial decision-making

The latest money from ICE came after the exchange group announced last year that it planned to invest up to $2 billion into Polymarket.

Intercontinental Exchange has said it will act as a “global distributor” of Polymarket data, using activity on the platform to provide “sentiment analysis” for investors. Data from prediction markets has increasingly been used to inform trading strategies, including in oil markets.

Supporters of prediction markets say they provide a “truth signal” by attaching financial incentives to forecasts. Some analysts have cautioned that activity by a limited number of users could influence implied probabilities, with potential effects on external markets that rely on such data.

Polymarket operates an international exchange that is not open to US customers, while testing a new US-facing application. But the regulatory environment remains contested.

Several state gaming regulators have said that prediction markets should be governed by state gambling regulations and have sought to shut them down in court. For its part, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission defends that the exchanges come under the agency’s federal oversight and can operate nationwide.

Concerns tied to trading conduct

Trading activity on the platform has drawn attention from authorities and online communities. Israeli authorities earlier this year arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to make Polymarket bets.

A The Guardian investigation found that thousands of people in online communities on Discord are strategising on how to make money from conflict by betting on Ukraine’s frontlines, laying arbitrage wagers on geopolitical events, and, at times, copying the bets of what appear to be insider wallets.

The investigation also found that some Polymarket users appeared willing to pressure independent institutions, including the media and think tanks, to change reporting in order to win bets. In one instance, Polymarket traders threatened an Israeli journalist, demanding he change his article so that they could collect on a bet over whether Iran had struck Israel on a specific date.

Polymarket rose in visibility during the 2024 US presidential election. During that period, well-known US pollster Nate Silver joined the platform’s advisory board, stating that prediction markets may be a superior way to forecast events, as they monetarily incentivise correct guesses in a way that polling does not.