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2026 World Cup prediction market trading has exceeded $5 billion across Polymarket’s international exchange and US-regulated Kalshi, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of Dune Analytics data and company records, as sports event contracts draw larger volumes and expose high-value wagers in near real time.
The activity has made the tournament a public record of large gains and losses. On Polymarket, an account using the moniker “GRIMDRIP” recorded the largest known World Cup profit so far, turning $6 million into $13.6 million through two wagers on the Czech Republic versus South Africa.
Another account, “mintblade,” doubled a $7 million bet that Iran would not beat New Zealand. A separate user lost nearly $9 million after betting on Belgium to beat Egypt.
The figures show only part of the market. Polymarket users can operate multiple accounts, and the platform does not conduct identity checks on its international exchange, making it harder to connect positions. Investors may also hedge through traditional sportsbooks or US-regulated prediction market platforms where individual activity is not visible.
The 104-match World Cup is still underway, with more group stage matches and the knockout rounds remaining. Together with the NBA Finals, the tournament helped Kalshi post its first three-day streak of daily trading volumes above $1 billion, chief executive Tarek Mansour said.
Prediction markets have also given gambling companies access to US states where traditional sports betting is prohibited, including California and Texas.
DraftKings, which expanded into prediction markets in 2025, said last weekend was its largest for event contracts, ahead of the Super Bowl in February. In a social media post, the company said total customers rose more than 200% from the prior weekend, while volume increased 100%.
DraftKings Predictions just had its biggest weekend ever.
Driven by the NBA Finals and the start of the World Cup, total customers grew over 200% compared to the prior weekend, and consumer volume increased over 100% weekend over weekend, as we continued setting new records for…
— DraftKings News (@DraftKingsNews) June 15, 2026
DraftKings and Kalshi have spent heavily on social media and television campaigns, with DraftKings promoting its “sports app” as available nationwide and Kalshi working with Croatian midfielder Luka Modric and Argentina’s Lionel Messi during the tournament.
World Cup trading has extended beyond match results. Users can bet on the Golden Boot, where France’s Kylian Mbappe is the favorite, and whether US President Donald Trump will attend the final match, with 87% saying yes.
Of the 20 most profitable wagers across Polymarket’s non-US exchange in the last seven days, only two were unrelated to the World Cup, according to company and blockchain records.
One account known as “endlessFate” made $5.6 million on Saudi Arabia’s fixture against Uruguay and another $2.7 million betting that Colombia would beat Uzbekistan, while also recording a $1.2 million loss on whether the US and Paraguay would tie last week.
Despite some major wins, profits remain uncommon. Research by Bender and colleagues at Citizens found that retail customers on prediction markets typically lose money over the long term and fare worse than sportsbook bettors.
“Everything we’re seeing through the World Cup so far suggests that prediction markets are continuing on an aggressive growth trajectory,” said Chris Grove, an analyst at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.