Predictions, Picks & Odds to Win Group L in 2026 FIFA World Cup

England are seen as the overwhelming favorites in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and they shouldn’t have major issues in finishing at top of the group. Croatia are their biggest threat on paper, whereas Ghana and Panama know their best chance to qualify comes from a potential third-best place rather than making a push for the top spot.

Odds to Win Group L in 2026 FIFA World Cup

There’s only a handful of teams with odds of -200 to be group winners before the start of the tournament, and considering that England are among the favorites in the World Cup winner odds and “Bring It Home” — something they haven’t accomplished since being the host nation in 1966 — their status as the clear-cut favorites in Group L shouldn’t be much of a surprise. With an implied probability of 70% and -233 odds, the Three Lions are heavy Group L favorites.

The second-best team, Croatia, has an implied probability of 22% and long +355 odds. The Balkan side, led by Luka Modric, might have what it takes to pull a few upsets along the way and could be considered a team to watch if you’re interested in how to pick World Cup underdogs.

But even in the best scenario, seeing them as the top team in Group L looks like a long shot. The same goes for the other teams in the group, Ghana (7% implied probability, +1329) and Panama (2% implied probability, +4900). Neither should be a factor in this race. Thus, this is shaping up to be a two-team race for first place in Group L, but with a clear, strong favorite.

Odds and prices as of June 6 at Kalshi. If you don’t live in a Kalshi region, check out SBD’s list of top World Cup betting sites.

Trust England to Win Group L Comfortably

England’s favoritism isn’t just media propaganda, as bettors and the World Cup public betting data also favor England’s chances of making a deep run in the tournament. Thomas Tuchel’s men rank as the third-most popular team in both bet% and handle%, at 11.2% and 15.2%, respectively, and that is backed by one of the most talented generations The Three Lions have witnessed.

Led by Harry Kane in attack and supported by talents like Bukayo Saka, Morgan Rogers and Jude Bellingham, England have enough firepower to compete with any team in the world. The presence of the Bayern Munich star is extremely important, however, and the numbers back him up. Not only did Kane average over one goal per match at club level in the 2025-26 season after scoring 61 goals in 51 appearances in all competitions, but he’s also the all-time leading scorer for the English side with 79 in 113 appearances.

Unsurprisingly, Kane is also among the favorites in the World Cup Golden Boot odds for the upcoming tournament. He has an excellent scoring record in World Cups in his career with eight goals in 11 appearances across two tournaments. He netted six in Russia 2018 and three more in Qatar 2022.

The defense isn’t as talented as the attack on a per-name basis, but the fact that England didn’t concede a single goal throughout their World Cup qualifying campaign can’t be overlooked. In fact, England has conceded just five goals in 13 matches since the beginning of 2025, and three of those came in a 3-1 loss to Senegal in a friendly on June 10 last year. With elite talent in the final third, excellent depth on both sides of the ball and a strong defensive line, England should cruise to first place in Group L in the upcoming World Cup.

Group L Underdogs Unlikely to Challenge Three Lions

If we’re being realistic, neither Panama nor Ghana have a chance to win Group L. Their best chance of progression would be to finish among the top eight third-placed teams, but they’re a few steps below England and Croatia, who appear to be locks for the first two places. Croatia have had excellent World Cup performances in the past, including a runner-up finish in 2018 and a third-place berth in 1998, but this generation isn’t expected to pose a major threat.

Based on their favorable World Cup game odds against Ghana and Panama, Croatia should be able to secure a spot in the Round of 32 with relative ease. But it’s hard to see Croatia, with a past-his-prime Luka Modric and without proven attacking options outside of Osasuna’s Ante Budimir, having a shot against England’s stout defense. Simply put, England should back up their -233 odds and cruise to an easy finish in Group L. Their competitors are simply not good enough to pull an upset.

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