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- The New York Yankees are -142 moneyline favorites on the road vs the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday
- Will Warren starts for New York, with Patrick Corbin getting the nod for Toronto
- Read below for the my Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction, latest odds and prop picks
It’s the rubber match of a 3-game set between American League East rivals this afternoon, as the New York Yankees (41-27) take on the Toronto Blue Jays (34-36).
The Blue Jays’ bats could not come through in the clutch Saturday, stranding 10 baserunners in a 3-1 loss.
That’s part of the reason they are now home underdogs in the MLB odds, against the division leaders who have wins in five of their last six.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Yankees vs Blue Jays and other MLB action.
The Yankees enter this matchup as clear road favorites at -126 on the moneyline at FanDuel. This reflects their superior season record and the advantage in MLB probable pitchers with Will Warren on the mound (more on that below).
Conversely, the Blue Jays are positioned as a +110 home underdog at bet365, as they look to back Patrick Corbin and find consistency at the plate.
Looking at the spread, taking the Yankees to win by two or more runs offers +130 odds at DraftKings, while the juice is less enticing getting two runs for the Jays, paying out at -150.
The total runs rest comfortably at 8.5.
NY Yankees vs TOR Blue Jays Prediction
- Best Bet: Yankees ML (-126 at FanDuel)
The analytical edge heavily favors the Yankees to win outright.
The Yankees bring a potent offense into Rogers Centre, boasting a .760 team OPS and 350 total runs on the season. Conversely, the Blue Jays have struggled to match that production, plating just 290 runs with a .701 OPS.
Star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr missed Saturday’s contest due to lower back tightness. If he is unable to suit up, the already-struggling Blue Jays offense will lack the firepower necessary to keep pace.
New York’s road metrics reveal exactly why they enter as the favorite, as they rank second in the league in away average exit velocity (89.5 mph).
Conversely, Toronto struggles to generate hard contact in their own ballpark, sitting near the bottom of the league with an 87.5 mph home exit velocity. This lack of raw power severely restricts their ability to drive in runs in bunches, evidenced by their pedestrian 1.05 home runs per game.
On the mound, the Yankees hold the upper hand. Will Warren gets the nod, sporting a solid 3.41 ERA and an impressive 9.83 K/9.
Warren has been a massive asset for the Yankees this season. A deeper look at his peripheral stats confirms that his success is legitimate. His 3.25 FIP and 3.55 xFIP mirror his baseline production, indicating excellent run-prevention skills. Warren overwhelms hitters with swing-and-miss stuff, boasting a 9.83 K/9 and limiting opposing batters to a quiet .235 average.
He faces veteran Patrick Corbin, who has yielded a 4.55 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and 9.89 hits per nine innings.
Recent trends reinforce the disparity between the two starters. In his last 10 appearances, Warren has maintained his dominance, pitching to a 3.50 ERA with a blistering 10.17 K/9. He also consistently pitches deeper into games, averaging 5.40 innings per start.
Conversely, Corbin has failed to show meaningful improvement over his last 10 outings. Elevated walk rates have forced his pitch counts up, limiting him to an average of just 4.77 innings per start and frequently exposing a vulnerable Blue Jays bullpen.
Given Corbin’s tendency to allow traffic on the basepaths, my prediction for a higher-scoring game pairs well with a Yankees victory.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Props
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109 at Caesars): The Yankees have several right-handed sluggers who have historically crushed Corbin. Leading the charge is Paul Goldschmidt, who has dominated the left-hander with a .435 average and three home runs across 23 at-bats.
Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+129 at DraftKings): Corbin pitches heavily to contact, evidenced by his low 6.28 K/9 rate. The results have been troubling, as opponents are hitting a robust .283 against him. Against a potent Yankees lineup, this lack of swing-and-miss capability could spell trouble for the left-hander.