Reds vs Mariners Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits

• The Seattle Mariners are favorites to defeat the Cincinnati Reds in the second of a three-game set
• The pitching battle features Chase Burns up against former Red Luis Castillo
• Keep reading for my Reds vs Mariners predictions, analysis and MLB player prop selection

The Seattle Mariners (51-50) are continuing their series against the Cincinnati Reds (45-54) following a decisive 8-0 shutout victory Monday. In their previous matchup, Seattle’s offense caught fire with 13 hits, headlined by a Cal Raleigh home run. The Reds struggled to generate momentum, mustering just three hits against the rotation.

Coming into this contest, Seattle sits as a clear home favorite in the MLB odds. They hand the ball to Luis Castillo to keep their momentum rolling. The underdog Reds counter with Chase Burns, hoping he can spark a turnaround and silence a lineup featuring Randy Arozarena.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM PT / 9:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park, with broadcast coverage available on Reds.TV and Mariners.TV. Keep reading for my picks and predictions for tonight’s tilt.

Mariners vs Reds Pick & Predictions

• The Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (50¢ at Kalshi)

While Seattle boasts home-field advantage and a deep overall pitching staff, Cincinnati’s Chase Burns has been electric this season. The righty is sporting a sparkling 2.54 ERA and a 10.34 K/9 strikeout rate over 102.2 innings pitched.

However, the Mariners counter with Luis Castillo and a much more reliable relief corps. Seattle’s bullpen has compiled a solid 3.57 ERA, standing in stark contrast to a Reds bullpen that has struggled to a 4.61 mark.

With both offenses hitting exactly .230 on the season (tied second worst in MLB) and two strikeout-heavy starters taking the mound, runs should be at a premium. Burns has the pure stuff to silence the bats. Buying “No” on the over at 50¢ on Kalshi provides an even-money payout, beating the -113 juice found elsewhere.

Best Player Prop: Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 Hits -152 at BetMGM)

Backing Noelvi Marte to record a base hit is one of the strongest MLB player props available. Marte has exceeded 0.5 hits in 83.0% of his recent road contests, cashing this ticket in five of his last six away games while averaging 0.8 hits per game during that stretch.

Luis Castillo vs Chase Burns Pitching Matchup

Burns has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year. He boasts an outstanding 11-1 record, significantly bolstered by a stifling 2.54 season ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Burns excels at missing bats, maintaining a 10.34 K/9 for the season.

Conversely, Castillo’s overall campaign has been rockier. Weighted down by a 3-8 record and an inflated 4.93 ERA, Castillo has occasionally struggled with traffic on the basepaths.

Reds vs Mariners Season Statistics

Reds vs Mariners Odds & Public Betting Splits

Odds as of July 21 at 3:42 pm ET from Caesars Sportsbook. Click here for a Caesars Sportsbook promo code before betting on Reds vs Mariners.

In the MLB public betting splits, 57% of the tickets are on the Mariners to emerge victorious on the moneyline, but interestingly 73% of the handle is on the visitors. 65% of the wagers are on the home squad to cover the run line, but a whopping 93% of the cash points towards the visitors. As for the run total, 80% of bets are on over 7.5 runs and 81% of the moola has been placed on the over.

Reds vs Mariners Injury Report

How to Watch Reds vs Mariners

TV Networks: Reds.TV and Mariners.TV

Away Team: Cincinnati Reds

Home Team: Seattle Mariners

Date: Tuesday, July 21st

Game Time: 6:40 PM PT / 9:40 PM ET

Venue: T-Mobile Park

Location: Seattle, Washington